CLIMATE CHANGE:The world demand for food is outstripping supply; food prices may climb for years; and climate change will make it harder for the world's poorest people to get enough to eat, according to a report released yesterday.
The International Food Policy Research Institute's report, which coincides with an international meeting on climate change in Bali, shows that rising global temperatures and increasing food consumption in rapidly developing countries such as China and India are pressurising the world food system. This will result in a rise in food prices for the foreseeable future.
World Food Situation was presented by its lead author, Joachim von Braun, director of the Washington-based research group, and is sure to strike a chord in China, which has more than 20 per cent of the world's population but only 7 per cent of its arable land.
"Surging demand for food, feed and fuel have recently led to drastic price increases . . . Climate change will also have a negative impact on food production," said Mr von Braun.
Global agricultural production is projected to decrease by 16 per cent by 2020 due to global warming, with land used for certain crops shrinking. Land to grow wheat could almost disappear in Africa.
This could happen despite the potential for increased yields in some colder areas and the fertilising impact on plants of higher concentrations of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.
Food prices have been falling since scientists began developing high-yield plant varieties years ago, but the days of declining food prices are over, according to Mr von Braun.
"The world eats more than it produces currently, and over the last five or six years that is reflected in the decline in stocks and storage levels. That cannot go on, and exhaustion of stocks will be reached soon," he said.
The last time such food price increases were seen was in 1973 and 1974, he said. "But today the situation is completely different. For one, the climate risk and climate change situation has increased; the climate vulnerability has increased."
There is also the risk of instability. Food inflation in China has seen murmurings of discontent, while countries such as Mexico have already experienced food riots over soaring prices.
While the Bali climate change conference will focus on biofuels and other alternatives to oil, the report shows that the expansion of demand for biofuel could spell bad news for nutrition among the poor.
Current investment plans could push maize prices up by 72 per cent and increase oilseed costs by 44 per cent, which means that subsidies for the industry will function as a tax on the poor.
A key indicator is global cereal stocks, which are the main buffer against global famine. They have sunk to their lowest levels in more than 20 years because of reduced plantings and poor weather.
The geopolitics of food make for grim reading, particularly with oil prices heading towards $100 (€67.77) a barrel. The main victims will be the poor, who have had to take on board a tripling in wheat prices and near-doubling in rice prices since 2000.
"When taking into account the effects of climate change, the number of undernourished people in sub-Saharan Africa may triple between 1990 and 2080," the report said.
The report suggests a number of measures to improve food security, including more investment in agricultural technology, a stronger social welfare net with particular support for children, improved infrastructure and finance opportunities in less-developed countries.
Trade barriers for food should be eliminated, especially in developed nations, the report also recommended, so that small farmers could earn more money. "A world facing increased food scarcity needs to trade more, not less," the report said.
Both the EU and the US have been reluctant to cut support for their own farmers and reduce trade barriers in world trade talks.