A collapse in service delivery and widespread corruption at many African National Congress-led municipalities could firmly establish coalition politics in South Africa’s local government councils following the November 1st municipal elections.
Recent opinion polls suggest support for the ruling party could fall to around 50 per cent of the vote due to its poor performance in local government in recent years.
Many ANC-run municipalities have failed dismally to deliver basic services to communities, and dozens also face financial collapse due to poor management and corruption.
According to the auditor general’s municipal report for 2019/20, only 27 of South Africa’s 257 municipalities received a clean audit for the year. In June, auditor-general Tsakani Maluleke told parliament that 26 billion rand (€1.55-billion) in irregular expenditure was uncovered at municipalities for the period under review.
Coalition governance became common in South Africa’s large urban areas in 2016, as the ANC’s support from the electorate waned in that year’s municipal elections. The ruling party won 61. 95 per cent of the vote in the 2011 local elections, but this fell to 53. 91 per cent in 2016.
As a result, the ANC lost four of the country’s eight key metropolitan areas to the main opposition party or coalitions. If the latest opinion polls prove to be accurate, South Africans could see this trend spread after November 1st.
In early October South Africa’s Institute of Race Relations revealed that only 50.3 per cent of respondents to a recent survey it conducted indicated they would vote for the ANC. An opinion poll released by market researchers Ipsos in September found the ANC’s share of the vote could drop to 49.3 per cent.
While both polls indicate the ANC’s popularity is declining, they also show the movement still dominates the political landscape, as its closest challengers – the liberal Democratic Alliance (DA) and far-left Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) – have failed to convince large numbers of voters of their worth.
Infighting
Indeed, although most of the best-run municipalities are led by DA in the Western Cape province, the main opposition party is expected to shed some of the support it secured in 2016 in this election, when it won 26.9 per cent of the vote.
Since its poor showing in the 2019 national elections, several prominent black leaders have quit the DA, accusing it of being primarily focused on the needs of white voters. Analysts believe this will undermine its performance in 2021.
In addition, the DA and EFF appear unable to work together at the municipal level. Both parties joined forces with smaller political outfits to oust the ANC in Johannesburg, Tshwane, and Nelson Mandela Bay metros in 2016, but all three coalitions collapsed due to infighting and disagreements.
In the run-up to Monday’s poll the DA has insisted it will not form coalitions with the EFF this time, and while the latter party could see its support increase a little from the 8.2 per cent of the vote it secured in 2016, outside of the youth its radical approach to politics is not popular.
Consequently, South Africans could see the ANC forming minority governments with small parties to resolve hung councils where it loses its majority. Indeed, these parties could be the “kingmakers”, as some disaffected voters turn to them rather than keeping faith with the traditional heavyweights.
To reverse its electoral decline, the ANC deployed its leader, Cyril Ramaphosa, and top officials to lead its nationwide election campaign for much of October, and they have urged voters to give the former liberation movement another chance “to do better”.
Mr Ramaphosa, who is also South Africa’s president, has led efforts to clean-up the ANC since he was elected its president in 2017, and he remains broadly popular even if his party has lost some appeal.
While campaigning in Alberton, Gauteng province, on October 19th Mr Ramaphosa conceded some ANC representatives had failed the electorate in the past, but he insisted the party was being renewed.
“The ANC candidates have committed to do better and be better,” he said, “They have pledged to correct what has gone wrong”.
Most unpredictable
Mcebisi Ndletyana, an associate professor at the University of Johannesburg’s department of politics and international relations, said it was unclear if Mr Ramaphosa’s popularity would save the ANC in this poll, like it did in the 2019 general elections.
“I don’t think he [Ramaphosa] is as strong and influential a figure as he was in 2019. Some of the people he surrounded himself with in the ANC have since been fingered in corruption. So, his credibility has been undermined,” he said.
Institute for Security Studies researcher Lizette Lancaster said next week’s election was probably the most unpredictable to date, given Covid-19’s potential impact on voter turnout, and the fact that South Africans have become increasingly disillusioned with politicians.
“Coalitions are the future of local government in South Africa, but they are difficult to work here because they are so politicised,” she said.
There are 26.2 million South Africans registered to vote in Monday’s election and 325 parties contesting it, according to the Electoral Commission of South Africa.
