François Hollande's "non" was diplomatic but unambiguous. Amending the EU treaties, the French president told British PM David Cameron at their pub lunch summit at the Swan Inn in Swinbrookon on Friday last, is "not a priority". Nor was it particularly surprising. France has had a bad experience with treaty changing, its people having, with the Dutch, voted down nine years ago, killing off, the draft EU constitution. And why anyone would expect a French Socialist to open the door to a British social policy opt-out is unclear.
France wants a better-run union, Hollande told a press conference, but “if there are going to be amendments to the text, we don’t feel that for the time being they are urgent.” Not least, he made clear, because major changes would also prompt another French referendum.
The rebuff, coming at the same time as a defeat in the Lords for his referendum bill, is an important blow to Cameron's pledge to hold a UK referendum on its place in the EU in 2017. That is supposed to happen following a significant renegotiation of the treaties and the agreement, Cameron hopes, on repatriation of a number of as-yet unspecified powers to Britain – he wants to remove the treaty aspiration to an "ever closer union" among the peoples of Europe and other targets are believed to be mainly in the fields of social policy and immigration.
It takes two to tango, however. And, willing partners in a renegotiation process are thin on the ground, although some capitals feel that at least an appearance of readiness to talk, and minor concessions, may be tactically important to thwarting a withdrawal campaign in the UK.
Cameron may have more luck in Berlin. Chancellor Merkel on Wednesday in the Bundestag spoke of “need to further strengthen the EU institutions to set up a real economic union ... and I’m convinced this requires further development of the EU’s treaties.” Not exactly what Cameron has in mind, but any opening of the treaty for such a purpose would also open the door for the British PM. The requirement for unanimity is a powerful negotiating tool.