After keeping Germany – and the world – in suspense, Chancellor Angela Merkel has decided to run for a fourth electoral term next year, presenting herself as a cohesive continuity figure in uncertain times.
Dr Merkel announced her decision on Sunday at a board meeting of her ruling Christian Democratic Union (CDU), followed by a televised press conference on Sunday evening. “This election will be the most difficult since unification, with challenges from the left and right,” said the 62 year-old politician. “Society is more polarised that it was in 2013 . . . but I believe I can make a contribution to lead the debate.”
Already widely expected to run given lack of serious CDU challengers, Dr Merkel’s decision became even more likely given political uncertainties arising from Brexit and US president-elect Donald Trump.
In two weeks Dr Merkel stands for re-election as leader of her ruling Christian Democratic Union (CDU), the party she has headed since 2000, and, if elected, she vowed on Sunday to run for another full four-year term.
Refugee crisis
The CDU hopes to win next September’s election with a focus on families and middle-class voters, as well as conservatives disillusioned over the refugee crisis. The arrival of about a million asylum seekers last year has left dents in Dr Merkel’s previously flawless facade, but the German leader still enjoys majority support in opinion polls.
Among CDU members that support rises to 92 per cent support while even in the rival Social Democratic Party, junior coalition partner in Berlin, some 54 per cent back Dr Merkel as chancellor. Serving a full fourth term would allow her overtake CDU founder Konrad Adenauer, chancellor for 14 years from 1949, but to beat her mentor Helmut Kohl’s record she would have to win a fifth term, in 2022.
Her promise to present herself as a cohesive figure in the looming campaign reflects a nervous mood and a changed political landscape since 2013. The euro and refugee crises, combined with fear of a major terrorist attack, has seen the rise of a furious “Merkel must go” mood, channelled by the anti-Islam Pegida movement and the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD).
And even if the CDU wins the election, the AfD’s likely entry to the next Bundestag will complicate her coalition arithmetic. Of three likely outcomes, two include the CDU: a third grand coalition with the Social Democrats (SPD) or a CDU-Green coalition.
Senior SPD figures insisted yesterday Dr Merkel is not “unbeatable” and a fourth Merkel term not a foregone conclusion. However, the SPD has yet to rule in our out a three-way coalition with the Greens and Left Party – at present the only way to end the Merkel era.
Given uncertainty in Europe and the wider world, next year’s federal year election in Germany will be much more than a just a national poll. Dubbed the “last veteran” by US president Barack Obama last week, the ever-sober Dr Merkel dismissed the idea of herself as the last remaining leader of the liberal free world as “grotesque” and “absurd”.
