Both the gun battle for Donetsk airport, in which some 50 separatists are reported to have died over the past two days, and the election at the weekend of billionaire Petro Poroshenko as president mark potentially critical turning points in the Ukraine crisis. But, turning points in opposite directions.
The sending in of troops to the airport is a major escalation by Kiev in its willingness to engage rebels militarily, a new confidence that was almost certainly inspired by Poroshenko’s sweeping election victory.
The latter's pragmatism, preference for dialogue and personal relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin will have provided some reassurance to the alienated eastern pro-Russian communities, totaling some 6.5 million people. Although a veteran of Ukrainian politics, having served as parliamentary speaker, foreign minister and trade minister, his resounding defeat of Julia Tymoshenko – Poroshenko took 54 per cent to her 13 per cent – and his more conciliatory language on issues like federalisation and Nato seemed likely to open doors to compromise.
The new president, however, on his election explicitly ruled out talking to or doing deals with “terrorists” – the airport raid made his point, and Russia’s strongly worded protest yesterday suggests a worrying further destabilisation is under way, and a dangerous testing of Putin’s promise to respect the election result.
But Russian sabre-rattling notwithstanding, it remains unclear how far Russia is willing to see its agenda set by Ukraine's most radical separatists in control of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions and who over the weekend declared their own breakaway state of "Novorossiya". Poroshenko, who insists he wants Russia involved in any discussions, and promises concessions on regional federal structures, has already in the course of the election differentiated himself to a degree from the government in Kiev. He is now also well placed to explore the possibility of easing apart Moscow and the irredentists in Donetsk.