UK: Tony Blair is raising the spectre of a shock Conservative victory in a determined bid to deter disillusioned Labour supporters from registering a "protest" vote for the Liberal Democrats in Thursday's general election, writes Frank Millar in London
And nervousness among Labour's high command has been raised by a fresh leak from the heart of government throwing the Iraq war back into the spotlight - coupled with warnings from the left that attempts will be made to force a leadership change if Mr Blair tries to remain in office for much more than a year after the election.
Today's latest tracker polls will confirm the weekend predictions that Labour is still on course to win with a substantial majority in the new House of Commons.
However, with the size of that majority crucial to Mr Blair's ability to serve a "full" third term, Labour will hammer home its warning that the Conservatives could win "by the back door" if one in 10 Labour voters switch sides or do not vote in more than 100 key marginal seats.
The Liberal Democrats have accused Mr Blair of "crying wolf", while the respected polling expert Prof John Curtice suggests even a massive uniform swing of 15 per cent to the Lib Dems would, at worst, result in a hung parliament, with many Tories also losing their seats. But with some 20 per cent apparently still to make up their minds how to vote - and with yesterday's potentially damaging new leak showing Mr Blair discussing "regime change" in Iraq eight months before the military action began - the prime minister has acknowledged he simply does not know to what extent sustained opposition attacks on his character are affecting the electorate.
Despite evidence that Conservative leader Michael Howard's decision to brand the prime minister "a liar" has badly backfired, Mr Blair told The Observer: "The question is whether some of the mud sticks. The honest answer is, I do not know."
At the same time he launched a strong counter-attack on Mr Howard, who has said he would have told the cabinet and parliament about any doubts about its legality and gone to war in Iraq just the same. And for all his determination not to presume the outcome of Thursday's poll, Mr Blair also appeared to bridle at suggestions the "the orderly transition" of power to chancellor Gordon Brown might already be under way.
Asked on the BBC's Breakfast with Frost programme if he and Mr Brown would in effect be running a "joint premiership", Mr Blair replied: "No. You've only got one prime minister, but it's a strong team." And Mr Blair again insisted he intended to serve a full parliamentary term in Number 10 before handing the Labour leadership to a successor toward the end of the next parliament.
Mr Blair's comments came after anti-war MP Robert Marshall-Andrews QC predicted the party's processes would be put into effect to try to force a leadership contest unless Mr Blair agreed to step down in about a year's time.
However, former Labour MP Brian Sedgemore, who last week defected to the Lib Dems, suggested Mr Marshall-Andrews's assessment might, if anything, be too cautious.
Speaking on GMTV's Sunday Programme, Mr Sedgemore suggested Gordon Brown could be prime minister "within nine months" if Labour's majority was slashed on Thursday.
Mr Sedgemore said there were an enormous number of Labour MPs "who are perfectly loyal to the party, but absolutely fed-up to the back teeth with the prime minister".
Asked if they would attempt to trigger a leadership contest, he replied: "I think that is inevitable. That will not only come from them, that will actually also come from people who are now what I call Blair loyalists."
Mr Sedgemore predicted: "The cabals will start to work immediately. If Blair wins with a huge majority he might not even carry out his promise to retire, but if he is below 100 the knives are going to be out very quickly. He will be a lame duck."
Liberal Democrat leader Charles Kennedy made the same assertion yesterday, telling a party rally that Iraq would haunt Mr Blair and his legacy now no matter how long he remained in post. Again demanding an inquiry into the war and the conduct of ministers, Mr Kennedy said: "Even if he wins a third term, Tony Blair is now going to be a lame duck prime minister.
"Iraq will haunt his premiership and his legacy - just as Suez did for Sir Anthony Eden."
An ICM poll for The Sunday Telegraph showed the Conservatives with a mountain to climb in the remaining three days of the campaign, a full eight points behind Labour (on 39 per cent) and nine ahead of the Lib Dems (on 22 per cent). Repeated on Thursday, that would give Labour another landslide with a majority of 145 seats. YouGov's internet polling for the Sunday Times on the other hand again reflected a much narrower three-point lead for Labour - which replicated on Thursday on a uniform swing would see Mr Blair's current majority of 161 drop to 92.
Mr Howard said he was still "very confident" the Tories could still win. Former party leader William Hague said the party should be "upbeat" about its chances, and that the opinion polls "feel wrong". The giveaway, perhaps, was in Mr Hague's suggestion that Mr Howard should not quit as Tory leader even if he fails to topple Mr Blair.