The forecast as I write predicts a temperature of three degrees and showers of intermittent sleet. Par for the course, say you, around this time of year for Washington DC. Statistics, however, suggest that George W. Bush should be a little luckier, if that is possible: the average noon temperature in late January is four degrees with odds of one in six of having rain and one in 12 of snow.
But it could be considerably worse. When William Howard Taft was sworn in as president of the US in 1909, the occasion was marked by one of the most severe snowstorms ever known in that country. "The worst weather on the face of the Earth," one shivering Congressman described it. Six thousand shovellers struggled vainly to clear Pennsylvania Avenue and the area around the Capitol.
The new president, contrary to custom, was obliged to take the oath indoors, and the scene as he and his wife returned to the appropriately named White House through the crowded streets was more reminiscent of Moscow or St Petersburg than Washington.
William Henry Harrison's inauguration day in 1841 was likewise bitterly cold, but on this occasion the new president insisted on an outdoor ceremony. His decision was not wise: the new president caught a chill, and died having only been a month in office. And when Ulysses S. Grant took the oath in 1873, the noon temperature in Washington was a chilling minus nine degrees, making it the coldest inauguration day on record.
January cannot be blamed for any of this harshness, since only the last 16 inaugurals have taken place on this date. Prior to 1937 and the 29th Amendment to the Constitution, the new president was traditionally sworn in on March 4th.
The date was changed for reasons of state, but considered opinion at the time was that the January date, although colder on average, was likely to be more favourable as regards avoiding stormy weather.
The change, however, made no immediate difference. Franklin D. Roosevelt's second inaugural in 1937 - the first to be held on the revised date - was the wettest in history, with more than 12 millimetres of rain in the two hours around noon on January 20th, and a temperature only just above freezing point.
Roosevelt, however, insisted the ceremony proceed outside so as not to disappoint the large crowds gathered for the occasion. Twenty-four years later, when John F. Kennedy was inaugurated in 1961, the occasion was again marked by severe snowstorms - conditions only marginally better than those experienced half a century before by Taft.