Sinn Fein could take a Dail seat in the four-seat Dublin South West constituency in the next general election if they can get younger supporters out to vote, according to a poll.
Fine Gael TD Mr Brian Hayes tops the poll with 24 per cent of the first preference vote, Labour TD Mr Pat Rabbitte is second at 20 per cent, with Fianna Fail TD Mr Conor Lenihan and Sinn Fein's Mr Sean Crowe tied at 18 per cent.
However, Mr Crowe's vote is concentrated among the young. He enjoys 27 per cent support among the 18-24 age group, and does even better at 29 per cent with those between 25 and 34.
Dublin South West has lost a seat because of constituency revisions. Leader of the Progressive Democrats Ms Harney has transferred to the three-seat Dublin Mid West constituency.
Sinn Fein has made a major effort to capture a Dail seat in South West. Party handlers have ensured that Mr Crowe has been given a high television profile - during Stormont negotiations, for instance.
The party won two seats in the last local elections: "People here will not be too surprised by the poll findings. They have been making steady progress," conceded Fine Gael TD Mr Hayes.
The poll is good news for Fine Gael. In the 1992 general election, the party took just 6 per cent of first preferences. In 1997 this went up to 15 per cent. "We have consolidated our position," said the FG TD.
However, Fianna Fail will be less pleased. Sitting TD Mr Conor Lenihan should stay ahead of the Sinn Fein candidate and take the third seat, according to the poll conducted by MRBI for TG4.
But Fianna Fail has little chance of taking two seats. At present, former Minister of State Mr Chris Flood represents South West, but he is retiring on health grounds when the present Dail ends.
Mr Lenihan's 18 per cent share of the vote is among the over 50s. But his support is largely outside the constituency's Tallaght heartland.
The poll is bad news for former TD for Labour Mr Eamonn Walsh, who is given just 3 per cent of first preferences. "I find it difficult to believe that that represents the reality on the ground," said a Labour official.
Mr Walsh's running mate Mr Rabbitte draws the majority of his support from Tallaght and from the poorer sections of its society.
The survey was conducted for TG4 among 400 people between March 26th and April 3rd.
