The allocation of carbon is a reallocation of political power. Mirroring the estimates process that decides money budgets for departments, sectoral plans on emissions are collectively a national climate budget. From January 1st, 2023 there will be an allocation of money as usual, but additionally there will be a carbon allocation that sets emissions ceilings for all economic sectors. Government decisions of lasting consequence on the sectoral allocation of carbon are due before the summer recess in July. The method of their making is a significant new decision-making process within government.
The politics of climate change in Ireland is halfway between comedy and consequence. The comic version is that it is a soapbox for one small political party, the Greens. Thin-lipped urban puritans, they are obsessed with cycleways and oppose motorways. They are phobic about turf, our auld sod. In politics, those talking points are important. An anti-rural, nanny state funded by carbon taxes is feared as a wedge issue in some rural constituencies.
That wedge is effective mainly because the Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael TDs it is aimed at are already at a low ebb politically. With the exception of Taoiseach Micheál Martin, there is a lack of enthusiasm in either party to sing or sell the benefits of a green economy. Sinn Féin senses political opportunity to play politics on climate which brings us from comedy to consequence. It will not matter at the next election if the Greens are wiped out again, as in 2011. Nor will it ultimately matter if a larger party in government backslides on commitments to reduce carbon emissions by 51 per cent by 2030.
We can banish to oblivion any party we want. We can deepen the consequences of the lost decade on climate change. What we cannot wish away is our obligation as an EU state to at least meet the targets we propose for ourselves. The question for those who won’t step up, is how then they would propose to deliver. There is buyer’s remorse in parts of Government. Leo Varadkar’s kick in the shins to Eamon Ryan over turf, perfectly platformed Sinn Féin in its wider opposition to delivery mechanisms for targets that it and the Government committed to.
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There is gathering momentum for a mighty slap from vested interests and opposition. But if not these sectoral carbon budgets, then what do naysayers in Government, or the alternative government, propose?
After 2011, Fine Gael and Labour in government walked back the climate change plan left behind by the Green Party. That is why we have a greater challenge now. After 2016 the rot on climate stopped when first Denis Naughten and then Richard Bruton seriously engaged as ministers. But it was still the politics of targets, not binding commitments. It was too late to catch up on 2020 commitments because it relied on a relatively peripheral department of climate, armed with little except a government plan, to ask its own colleagues in other departments to co-operate. The magnetic pull in any department is to its own sector which it has to live with, not bigger missions in which it is a secondary player. This time it is different. There is a law that sets out binding targets and a mechanism on how they are to be arrived at.
In theory this Government could fail to agree targets or cynically fail to deliver on ones it does agree. A future government could repeal the climate Act albeit at a political cost. EU commitments remain, regardless. Eamon Ryan, the Minister for Climate, is no longer panhandling his Government colleagues for goodwill. He is leading a process across Government underpinned by law and his power as a party leader. It is a culture change at Cabinet level, but it remains to be inculcated within Government departments. This is important for the future under an Act that requires actions but prescribes no punishment for failure. They would take the form of eventual EU fines which is a threat at one remove.
The sectoral plans due before summer centre on agriculture as the political row. Special consideration was given to farmers with a maximum cut of 30 per cent in emissions compared to an average of 57 per cent for other sectors. If agriculture is allowed to only make its minimum cut of 22 per cent, the rest of the economy would have to cut emissions by three times that, 66 per cent, to meet the overall target. The farmers in question are overwhelmingly intensive dairy farms. But in farm politics that is where power lies. It’s the tail that will wag the dog in Fine Gael and perhaps Fianna Fáil.
We can get rid of the Greens but we can’t prosper without the green agenda. Government and opposition alike accept the targets. The EU will require them. So will the foreign direct investment we depend on. Self-interest and economic opportunity requires that we embed a green perspective across government. Slow learning is expensive, so catching up would be smart. As for the Greens, if we must have a green agenda, a political party with it as its mission may be useful. Carbon is now political currency. Its control is power.