So after all the speculation, and remember nothing animates politicians more than the prospect of jobs for politicians, we can expect a pretty limited Cabinet reshuffle today.
Depending on how you look at it, this could be either because things are going so well that no change is warranted, or because the three leaders are not strong enough in their own parties to effect wide-ranging changes.
The limited scope of the reshuffle today is more to do with a desire to avoid the political upheaval inherent in major changes to the Cabinet when there is no strong political justification for it. In other words – it’s not worth the hassle.
This will disappoint the ranks of the ambitious – not least the TD who entreated this week to “add my name into the speculation” – but it should not surprise them. The three leaders have been trying to manage down expectations for weeks now.
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Still, the reshuffle affords an opportunity to assess the state of the Coalition and look forward to some of the big challenges it will face in the coming two-and-a-bit years before the next general election.
Without the €11 billion giveaway, the Coalition’s political fortunes would look a lot different to the relatively benign outlook they are now enjoying in the end of year reviews
The biggest threat facing the new/old administration is one over which it has very little control – the state of the Irish and global economies, and specifically the tax returns of the handful of pharma and tech giants that have swelled the State’s coffers with bumper corporation tax returns in the last couple of years.
That river of money showed no signs of drying up this year; quite the opposite, in fact, swelling to an astonishing €22 billion. For context, that is almost twice as much as it was three years ago.
It’s easy to get lost in a thicket of gazillions when discussing this issue, but in political terms, you could think of it another way: without the corporation tax windfall this year, there would have been nothing like the €11 billion-giveaway budget that Paschal Donohoe and Michael McGrath were able to construct at the end of the September.
And without that giveaway, the Coalition’s political fortunes would look a lot different to the relatively benign outlook they are now enjoying in the end of year reviews. Opinion polls testify to how well the budget was received, and the boost it gave the Coalition parties. Recap: the most recent Irish Times/Ipsos poll showed the aggregate support for the three parties is a bit below where it was at the general election – 47 per cent versus 50 per cent in 2020 – but nothing like the sort of mid-term collapse in support that their opponents hoped for or their supporters feared. To be within three points of your election day support after 2½ years in government is doing all right.
But this support is hugely reliant on the billions of euro in cost-of-living payments that have been funded by the corporation tax bonanza. And if the money runs out, the political prognosis for the Coalition will darken very quickly. That may not happen, and in truth there are no immediate signals that it will. But if it does, that will change the political atmosphere drastically, and to the Coalition’s perhaps terminal disadvantage. Which is why the new government will adopt the same approach as all its predecessors to the multinational sector: it will give them, within reason, anything they want.
The second challenge is a social and administrative one. It may seem like a minor corner of public policy, but if the Government gets it wrong, there will be far-reaching political consequences. The Coalition must deal with the refugee issue better.
The ongoing protests in East Wall are the tip of the iceberg of public unease about the siting of some refugee facilities in some communities. It should be stressed that communities all over the country have welcomed Ukrainian refugees with a hand and a heart. But we should not assume that this will continue with all refugees, in all places. The recent history of Europe would rather argue against it.
The early months of the new government are likely to see it more involved in Northern Ireland affairs than the new taoiseach might like. Some Brit-whispering, and its EU equivalent, will be required
With many more refugees from places other than Ukraine likely to arrive next year and beyond, the Government needs to do three things: firstly, it must quickly increase its capacity to accommodate them; secondly, it must gain the co-operation and acceptance of communities that are expected to receive them; and thirdly, it must drastically improve the efficiency of the system for judging asylum claims, so that people who deserve our protection are permitted to start new lives here, and those who do not, are not. If the Government fails to do this, it risks the introduction of a new and potentially ugly element in Irish politics.
The third item will be near the top of the new taoiseach’s in-tray. According to people involved in the process on various sides, January is likely to see a push for a deal between the EU and the UK, with Rishi Sunak – who visited Belfast on Thursday and Friday – keen to conclude an agreement and remove the threat to his stuttering economy presented by an ongoing rift with the EU.
It looks as if the British government is ready to do a deal with or without the DUP, repeating a manoeuvre we have seen many times before. Some insiders seem rather blasé about the prospects for loyalist protests – not the sort of thing the Government will want to see in the run-up to the 25th anniversary of the Belfast Agreement in March, which celebrations are, it is hoped, to be attended by US president Joe Biden.
Either way, the early months of the new government are likely to see it more involved in Northern Ireland affairs than the new taoiseach might like. Some Brit-whispering, and its EU equivalent, will be required.