It’s not often that one’s Instagram feed is dominated by an Irish politician in a positive light, but that’s what happened to me last week. Every time I clicked on another Instagram story, there it was, footage of Holly Cairns’ first speech in the Dáil as the new leader of the Social Democrats.
When it comes to relatability, Irish party politics has fragmented along the lines of in-group and out-group theory (and bias). For many people under the age of 40 in particular, Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil are now the out-group; not relatable, disconnected, and not part of what the broad “us” has become over the past decade and a half. Fine Gael is framed so much as “the other” by younger people in Ireland, that they’re frequently referred to as Tories. The smattering of younger Fianna Fáil politicians are largely viewed by younger voters as barely updated versions of past archetypes. Is this unfair? Maybe. But it’s also a very real sentiment.
Cut to Cairns, leader of the Social Democrats at just 33 years of age. There are now two leaders of two political parties, Ivana Bacik and Holly Cairns, whose most notable political activity before entering electoral politics, was reproductive rights activism. Cairns has gone from being a Repeal canvasser five years ago, to a party leader. If you’re looking for the most on-the-nose outcome of the social revolution of the 2010s, there you have it.
Among the six most significant parties in the Dáil – Sinn Féin, Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael, the Green Party, Labour and the Social Democrats – half are now led by women (with the average age of 46), and half are led by men (with the average age of 55). This is new. Crucially, both Labour and the Soc Dems are led by politicians in their first Dáil term. Mary Lou McDonald is in her third. This is Leo Varadkar’s fourth term, Eamon Ryan’s fifth, and Micheál Martin’s eighth. This demographic shift in leadership – of gender, age, and perceptions around “establishment” – matters. If McDonald becomes the first woman Taoiseach, it won’t just be because of her own qualities, or because of Sinn Féin’s rise, it will also be down to how the social context has created the potential for that to occur.
In order for Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil to survive electorally, they need young people not to vote. This is never a good sign
When Cairns’ name is mentioned, the first things I always hear – from people of all political affiliations – are almost effusively positive sentiments; “I love her!“, “she’s so great!“, “what a boss!”. These feelings she evokes are significant. Many people are on her side, willing her on, regardless of who they vote for. She rarely, if ever, falls into soundbites. In media appearances with other politicians, you can tell she’s listening to the content of what they’re saying, and responding to their points authentically, rather than from a rote script. Cairns’ communication is devoid of civil-servant-speak, spin, and jargon, and yet she’s also fastidious. She does not lean on rhetoric alone. She frequently embodies the audience in these exchanges, appearing authentically incredulous about hypocrisies, tearing up Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil’s record on housing, neoliberalism and the crash but still coming across like – how novel – a real person. An underrated quality of Cairns, which I’m sure we’ll see much more of, is how quick on her feet she is, making her very quotable.
The opening line of Cairns’ now famous speech – “I’m a member of the first ever generation who will be worse off than our parents – that didn’t happen by accident.” – landed with great impact and clarity in the collective Irish youth psych. Young people in Ireland were the most affected by the crash. They were the dominant demographic in 2010s activism. They drove the Sinn Féin surge. They were the most financially undercut by the pandemic. They are the ones who suffer the housing crisis most acutely and have therefore made that issue the axis on which contemporary Irish politics turns. They form the bulk of emigrants, and they are also the most highly educated young people in Europe.
According to the latest Irish Times/Ipsos poll, Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil’s base is skewed towards 65+. Fianna Fáil’s highest support, 30 per cent, is among the 65+, as is Fine Gael’s at 28 per cent. Support for Fine Gael among 18 to 24-year-olds languishes at an eye-widening low of 15 per cent. Among 25 to 34-year-olds, it’s a paltry 18 per cent. Fianna Fáil’s youth support is even worse, 10 per cent for 18 to 24-year-olds and 8 per cent among 25 to 34-year-olds. In order for Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil to survive electorally, they need young people not to vote. This is never a good sign.
Cairns’ leadership will draw people towards the Social Democrats, especially younger women. Her ascent also shatters stereotypes – that pathways to leadership don’t need to be ones of party youth structures, political dynasties, parochial hustling, or aligning oneself with whoever can fast-track a career. What I find interesting about how widely-shared Cairns’ speech was, is that it wasn’t some emphatic diatribe. She even appeared a little nervous. There was no grandstanding. The speech was almost understated. Being an effective communicator isn’t just about emotion-stirring rhetoric. You can try to manufacture authenticity, connection, and relatability all you want, but Cairns cuts through in a manner we rarely encounter.