The return of the Cabinet for its first meeting after the summer recess traditionally marks the beginning of a new political year. The Taoiseach and his Ministers had a well-earned break with their families in August.
They come back together to take stock today knowing that it has not been a good summer for the Government. The Fianna Fáil/Progressive Democrats Coalition was castigated for conning the electorate after the general election last year. That perception, rightly or wrongly, has assumed the status of fact. It has reduced the satisfaction ratings of the Taoiseach, the Government and level of support for the Fianna Fáil party to their lowest in office.
This summer was different. The brunt of public odium hit the Government as a whole last year for its perceived failure to present the real state of the public finances and the downturn in the economy to voters. For the first time, it focused almost exclusively on the Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, during August. He, like any other father, had every right to attend his daughter's private wedding in France. The question lingers, however, as to whether he, as leader of this State, made a wise judgment to be bound by an exclusive publication arrangement with a foreign magazine. He suffered public criticism also for his non-attendance at the commemoration ceremony to mark the fifth anniversary of the Omagh bombing.
These issues pale in significance, however, when account is taken of the political agenda for the coming year. The Cabinet will concentrate at its first post-summer meeting today on the agenda of the Irish presidency of the European Union from January. The presidency will exact a high toll on Ministers for the first six months of 2004 in the run-up to the local and European elections. It will be competing with a tough challenge to end the political vacuum in Northern Ireland and hold elections to the Assembly in the autumn. Mr David Trimble's fate at the Ulster Unionist Council meeting on Saturday will be crucial to this task.
As it begins its second year in its second term, the biggest challenge facing the Coalition is the state of the public finances and the downturn in the economy. The publication of the Exchequer returns for August yesterday show a shortfall of €500 million in tax revenue after eight months of the year. As the Estimates and budgetary process get seriously under way in coming weeks, the Government faces the fundamental choice to borrow, increase taxes or, if sufficient, tinker around with tax allowances and bands or carry out draconian cuts in public expenditure.
The Coalition must put a bad summer behind it as it enters the new political year. The Government has appeared to be all over the place in the first year of its second term. It has failed to set out its priorities. It has moved limply from one mini-controversy to another. Above all else, it has not conveyed any sense that it is pursuing targets for a programme for government. Little done, much more to do.