A Critical Week For The North

The Mitchell review of the Belfast Agreement restarted yesterday amid a plethora of broadly optimistic signals about the prospects…

The Mitchell review of the Belfast Agreement restarted yesterday amid a plethora of broadly optimistic signals about the prospects for progress. Much has been made of the comments by Mr Gerry Adams at the weekend that Sinn Fein would not be "dogmatic" on the decommissioning issue if the Ulster Unionist position could be met. The SDLP has interpreted Mr Adams's comments as a move toward some form of accommodation. Mr Sean Farren of the SDLP said that the statement went further than previous Sinn Fein utterances by acknowledging unionist concerns and pain.

Thus far, the London talks have been low-key in tone. There has been the strong sense that the UUP and the Sinn Fein representatives have been circling each other on the critical question of decommissioning. It is already clear that there will be a change of pace this week, as Senator Mitchell evaluates whether the basis for a possible agreement now exists. Whether there will be a change in the substance of the talks remains unclear, although the omens appear more propitious than for some time.

The challenge of resolving the decommissioning crux remains formidable and the pressure on both Mr Trimble and Mr Adams from the irredentists within their respective camps is intense. Yesterday's statement from Jeffrey Donaldson and other senior unionists insisting on prior decommissioning before Sinn Fein can take seats in an executive, is a reminder of how some want to turn the clock back. Mr Trimble has already moved beyond this. The critical problem remains how the issue of paramilitary decommissioning can move in tandem with the establishment of the executive; and Mr Trimble has shown his readiness to explore the possibilities of sequencing and phasing.

The key question to be resolved is whether the republicans, who have pocketed a succession of gains from the peace process, will now show the movement that is required. Despite the protestations of Mr Adams and his colleagues, it is clear that no seismic shift in republican philosophy is required; both governments are ready to mix principle with pragmatism. At this juncture, it is abundantly clear that the primary responsibility for breaking the impasse rests with Sinn Fein and their colleagues in the IRA. This week is a critical one for the people of Northern Ireland, indeed for everyone on this island. The general expectation in Dublin and London is that Senator Mitchell will return to the United States, perhaps by the middle of next week, if there is no sign of progress. The prize of peace remains tantalisingly close and the alternative - a step back from the Belfast Agreement - remains unthinkable. Mr Adams and Mr Trimble have both invested great energy and commitment into the process; they must now - in the words of the Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, at Bodenstown - show "moral courage, leadership and responsibility".