With its chairman's exit, the Flood tribunal faces loss of its moral legitimacy or years of litigation, writes Paul Cullen.
The latest tangle in which the Flood tribunal finds itself is a disaster for the Government, the chairman Mr Justice Flood and, most of all, the taxpayer forced to foot the bill for this squalid mess.
Whatever happens now, the Exchequer will be saddled with massive costs. If the tribunal caves in and awards costs to those it has judged corrupt, it will lose all moral legitimacy.
Millions will be sent the way of disgraced politicians and businessmen for distribution to their advisers, at our expense.
But if it follows its original intention of offloading the huge costs of the tribunal on those who failed to co-operate, it is likely to be mired in lengthy litigation. Indeed, if Mr Justice Flood leaves the stage now, as he wants to do, it is certain that the tribunal will be bogged down in court cases for years to come.
Either way, as throughout the history of this tribunal, the lawyers win.
The Government can't say it wasn't warned of the approaching disaster. It has been clear for some time that the tribunal was seriously off course.
In five years, it has completed three modules of investigation. It has 20 more to go.
Three new judges were appointed last year, but rather than speeding things up, progress has slowed to a snail's pace. The tribunal has sat less than 40 days so far this year; the last hearing was on May 2nd. Even the Seanad does better than that.
Mr Justice Flood turns 75 this month. Previously, I noted that at current rates of progress he would be 108 by the time things were wrapped up. Now I would have to add a few more years to that for the issue of costs.
All of this is self-evident to anyone who examines the tribunal and its work rate. Yet when this newspaper reported that Government figures were looking at ways to curtail or reform this and other tribunals, the Taoiseach reached instantly for his "deny" button.
This week, faced with the inevitable, Mr Ahern got his chance to eat crow.
Yesterday, he admitted to the Dáil that future modules may be heard in private and that the tribunal could take another 15 years unless modified.
If nothing becomes a man as the manner of his leaving, what then of Mr Justice Flood? Two months ago, he was ready to adjudicate on the issue of costs. The tribunal website announced a hearing at which parties who had failed to co-operate would be asked to explain why they should get their costs.
Yet the hearing was cancelled at short notice and it was later announced the chairman was indisposed.
The only communication since then has been the mysterious statement in which the chairman and Ray Burke's former lawyer, Mr Joe Finnegan, agreed they had no disagreement on the issue of Mr Burke's costs.
Mr Finnegan, who is now the president of the High Court, agreed with his colleague that he had never sought or been offered a deal under which Mr Burke's costs would be met in return for his co-operation.
Come this week, and the world suddenly learns that Mr Justice Flood isn't up to the "undue strain" of adjudicating on the issue of costs.
So what has changed in the space of eight weeks?
After all, this is the same chairman who got silver-tongued Frank Dunlop to "reflect" on his evidence so explosively, who dragged an impertinent Liam Lawlor down to the High Court every other week and who cajoled a reluctant pensioner, James Gogarty, into spilling the beans on Ray Burke.
For a man of these talents, a few submissions from Law Library colleagues seeking their crust should be a cakewalk.
His departure, if confirmed, puts the Minister for Justice in a quandary not of his making. Mr McDowell is one of the few figures who has taken a reasoned approach to the tribunals.
He has never exaggerated their importance when they work nor has he decried them excessively when they hit the occasional iceberg.
His proposals for new tribunals, to be published in legislation next week, are a step in the right direction, and may prove the saving of the Flood tribunal.
He also carries the moral force to reassure people who, for the very best reasons, do not trust politicians to investigate themselves. Quite what he can do about the issue of costs is anyone's guess, and he is right not to rush to a decision.
The Flood tribunal has many achievements to its credit, yet its legacy is frailer than ever.
A year after last year's interim report, not a single prosecution has been brought against those accused of participating in corruption.
Vast swathes of alleged corruption have not been investigated, and may never be investigated in the lifetimes of those involved.
The legal system is clearly not up to dealing with this quantity of dirty washing in a meaningful timeframe.
So, as Joe Higgins told the Dáil this week, the tribunals have gone from investigating millionaires to creating them through legal fees.