Public support for Fianna Fáil and the Coalition Government has rebounded during the past number of months as better news filtered through on the economic front and the main opposition parties have failed to capitalise on the Government's difficulties in the Dáil.
The latest Irish Times/TNS mrbi opinion poll, conducted earlier this week, will give heart to the Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, as he and his party prepare for the coming local authority and European Parliament elections in June. But Fianna Fáil has a long way to travel before it can reclaim the kind of support it attracted during the general election campaign of 2002.
The most striking feature of this survey is the growing accceptance of Sinn Féin, particularly in Dublin and in the Leinster region. Support for the party, following its successes in the Northern Ireland Assembly elections, has risen to 12 per cent across all constituencies - amounting to a growth rate of 30 per cent during the past 12 months.
The popularity of the party reflects the high profile of its president, Mr Gerry Adams, who holds the highest public satisfaction rating of any of the party leaders. The success of Sinn Féin in positioning itself to gain substantially in the coming local elections will, inevitably, cause it to be targeted by those parties under greatest threat.
Fianna Fáil, in particular, has much to lose in working class areas. But Fine Gael, the Labour Party and the Green Party are also vulnerable. Fianna Fáil and the Coalition Government plumbed historic lows in popularity terms during the past year. And while this poll would suggest the rot has stopped, the signs of growth are still tenuous.
Satisfaction levels with the Government have jumped by 11 points, but a majority of the electorate remains dissatisfied. In the same vein, while Mr Ahern's popularity rating recovered strongly, voters divided equally on whether he was doing a good or a bad job.
Attempts by the main opposition parties to co-ordinate their opposition in the Dáil and to present themselves as an alternative government have failed to make an impact with the electorate. Last September, the combined strength of Fine Gael, the Labour Party and the Green Party put them within touching-distance of being able to form a government, but they have since lost traction. Fine Gael, in particular, will be disappointed. It has failed to capitalise on public disillusionment with Fianna Fáil.
And while the satisfaction rating of Mr Enda Kenny has risen, he is still the least popular of the party leaders. The surge in support for the Labour Party, following last year's party conference, has not been maintained, although the party is still performing strongly.
The coming elections will be viewed as a litmus test of the political resilience of both Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael. Both parties have much to prove. The local contests, in particular, will determine whether there is a ceiling to Sinn Féin support in this State.