The early release of two IRA prisoners from Portlaoise Prison, coupled with last weekend's suggestion from the Secretary of State, Dr Mo Mowlam, of early paramilitary releases in the United Kingdom, must raise apprehensions. The renewed IRA ceasefire is not a month old. It is barely six weeks since murderous attacks were being carried out on the security forces in the North. And while there is a universal welcome for the cessation of violence, nobody purports to hold the line that a return to killing is impossible.
Yesterday's releases may not of themselves be especially important. The men in question were relatively small players in the Provisionals' scheme of things. But the Government is evidently testing the waters of public opinion - as was Dr Mowlam when she told a British newspaper that a continuing ceasefire would make it possible for some paramilitary prisoners to go free sooner rather than later. This is the start of a programme which will see other prisoners - bigger fish - walk to freedom as well. The two Governments are on a pathway strewn with traps.
The Secretary of State's comments brought swift and severe reaction from political leaders in the North as well as from the spokespersons for the security services. Officially the Garda does not have a view on a matter which is the prerogative of government. But unofficially sources within the force are making it clear that they view the possibility of further releases with apprehension. Some of those freed during the first IRA ceasefire, they claim, were swift to involve themselves in subversive activities after their release. And the same Garda sources believe that while IRA offensive operations have been suspended, other activities are continuing apace.
It is impossible not to sympathise with police officers - in both jurisdictions - who have in many instances risked their lives to bring these people to justice. To expect them to welcome their return to open society, with the risk that they may resume their violent course, is unrealistic.
The two Governments are making an act of faith in the Provisional movement; and for the second time. Many would say that such faith cannot but be misplaced; that it is far too early - given the betrayal of Canary Wharf - to make gestures of generosity such as the release of prisoners. But it is absolutely clear that both Dublin and London are resolved not to let this ceasefire run into the sands of endless clarification and word-play. A fixed calendar of events lies ahead with talks resuming on September 15th and a commitment from Mr Blair to bring them to a conclusion within a timespan of six months. In the meantime, the agreed confidence measures to be looked at will include prisoner releases - both republican and loyalist.
It can be assumed that nobody in either Government likes the idea of shortening sentences which have been handed down for what have been, in many instances, the most barbarous crimes. Nothing is assured and there are no guarantees. It could all end once again in the violence of bomb and bullet. In freeing some of Portlaoise's less threatening inmates and in moving towards the measures described by the Secretary of State, the two Governments are embarking upon a strategy of considerable risk. In truth, they have little choice other than to abandon the present course of political negotiation and seek a purely security-based solution.