Ministers - like the generals favoured by Napoleon - can do well in their careers if they are lucky. And the coalition Government's Minister for Justice, Mr John O'Donoghue, has been extremely lucky in his first three months in office. The massive anti-crime effort mounted by the gardai in the aftermath of the Veronica Guerin murder has kept the professional criminal elements on the run. Operation Dochas has successfully disrupted the Dublin drugs trade. And a loosening of the purse strings on garda overtime has resulted in a marked increase in visible policing on the streets. The combined effect of these measures is a sizeable downturn in virtually all categories of crime. The sole - and serious - exception is sexual crime.
Mr O'Donoghue is thus the fortunate beneficiary of time and circumstances. A year ago his predecessor, Mrs Nora Owen, was floundering under an avalanche of criticism from an outraged public. It was only after the Guerin murder that she got sufficient Cabinet support to move with a package of measures including the establishment of the Criminal Assets Bureau and the creation of additional prison spaces. Significantly too, the Garda Siochana got a new Commissioner with an energetic hands-on approach to the job. Unfortunately for Mrs Owen and the Rainbow Coalition, it all came too late. Its poor performance on crime was one of the reasons the voters rejected it.
The benefits of the Rainbow's belated actions have accrued to Mr Ahern's Government and to Mr O'Donoghue in particular. There has been no series of high-profile crimes to anger the public, no spectacular robberies, no flouting of the State's authority. Mr O'Donoghue has been able to stay out of the spotlight, saying nothing and being asked very little about his declared policy of "zero tolerance" which he promulgated during the election campaign. Yesterday in Galway, however, he broke his silence and gave an indication of the policies which he will follow.
He had little to say about zero tolerance per se. No loss there. It is a concept that defies satisfactory definition. But in the broader sense he is on the right track. He intends to establish a Crime Forum to hear views from parties and agencies with an input into criminal justice policy. He will then establish a Crime Council which will have an ongoing role in assessing the community's needs in respect of policing, prisons policy and so on. Ultimately there will be a White paper. It is heartening to know that the Minister sees beyond the ad hoc improvisation which for so long has passed as criminal justice policy in this State. He recognises that an organism as complex as a modern criminal justice system cannot operate without long-term goals, without the greatest internal cohesion and without access to research both locally and internationally.
In highlighting these proposals Mr O'Donoghue will no doubt come in for criticism from some who decry this measured approach, calling vaguely for action rather than talk. He must not be deflected by such ignorance. The gardai have shown that with the benefit of appropriate legal powers they can mount highly effective action against crime and criminals - from the professional to the opportunistic. What the gardai need - as do the courts and the prison services - is political leadership which looks beyond the next set of newspaper headlines or the next election. That has nothing to do with luck but with what the incumbent is made of. Time will tell with Mr O'Donoghue.