There is no easy solution to the potential problems posed by parades and marches in Northern Ireland. Many have little to do with pomp and ceremony; they are an attempt to carve out territory, to assert traditional rights. It may be that there is nothing any politician or policeman can do to prevent a parade when several thousand marchers are absolutely determined to proceed - even when there is the very real risk that it may lead to violence and a heightening of sectarian tension.
That said, the Review on Parades and Marches, chaired by Dr Peter North, has produced a measured and sensible report. It seeks to strike the correct balance between the right to lawful assembly and the responsibilities of those who organise marches and parades. And it seeks to inject an element of conciliation which could of itself help to bring compromise.
There are few signs - on the basis of Sir Patrick Mayhew's statement in the Commons yesterday that the British Government is willing to pick up the baton from Dr North. The report's key recommendation - that an independent Parades Commission should replace the RUC as the statutory body empowered to make decisions about disputed parades in Northern Ireland - is being put to one side. Instead, the emphasis is on the phased implementation of the report with the proposed commission limited - at least in the first instance - to a polite educational, - conciliation and advisory role. Sir Patrick also talks of "a period of consultation" until the end of March even though the North Review received over 300 submissions and letters and held 93 meetings with 270 people. Clearly, there are few others with whom one could consult.
The British Government is vulnerable to the charge that it has tailored its response solely with a eye to the political arithmetic at Westminster and the need to assuage the Ulster Unionist MPs. There is little sense that Sir Patrick is taking the wider view, or that his horizons stretch much beyond the forthcoming general election in Britain. And there is no sense that this is a Government that might, once again, consider taking some risks for peace.
But the problem of marches and parades will not disappear, and the need to find some solutions is just as urgent now as it was on the Garvaghy Road in Portadown, last July. Drumcree still stands as a defining moment in the current troubled phase of the peace process. In less than one week, much of the good work of building bridges between the nationalist community and the RUC was thrown away; the patient business of rekindling community relations was strained to breaking point and the prospects for investment and tourism suddenly darkened.
When it was over and all sides surveyed the wasteland, there was a firm resolve by both governments that it must never be allowed to happen again, that the RUC must never be placed in the same invidious position, that prior consultation and conciliation were essential. The establishment of the proposed Parades Commission could have provided part of the solution. Regrettably, this British government in its dying days no longer seems much interested in the search for long term solutions in Northern Ireland. Drumcree Mark Three looms ahead, with many additional potential flashpoints on the calendar. It is not easy to be other than profoundly pessimistic.