Bulgarian politics have been thrown into confusion by the close outcome of elections last June 25th and the even closer results of votes for prime minister and the formation of a coalition cabinet last week. Bargaining continues on who will form the next cabinet. But it is as likely to lead to new elections as to the formation of a stable government.
Fresh elections would probably have the effect of pushing back the date of EU accession in 2007, since crucial judicial, legal and administrative reforms intended to reduce political corruption would be delayed as a result.
Outgoing prime minister Simeon Saxe-Coburg, the country's former king, failed to get the overall majority he sought in the June vote. The president therefore invited Sergei Stanishev, leader of the Socialists, to form a government. He was nominated last week with one vote to spare as prime minister, but his proposed coalition with a Turkish minority party lost by one vote after elements of Saxe-Coburg's party revolted against participating in it. The president has now turned once again to the former king, who has indicated he might be willing to enter a coalition with the Socialists in which he would not be nominated as prime minister. That would represent a step too far for some of his diehard supporters; but they have to weigh up the probable effects of such a refusal on the timetable for EU accession.
It is a cruel dilemma which will probably not be resolved for another week. If it does result in a grand coalition, Bulgaria's political elite will have demonstrated an unwonted political maturity. If not, elections may not change the political arithmetic that much, but they would provide endless opportunities for damaging rhetoric and deepening ill-feeling between the main parties and especially between their ancillary supporters. The virulent hostility expressed by the right-wing Ataka movement against the minority Turkish Movement for Rights and Freedoms has already scarred the political landscape and it would be further damaged in another campaign.
Bulgaria made substantial progress with political and economic reform over the last four years, managing to hold on to the commitment that it would accede to the EU in 2007. It faces a major hurdle with a commission report on further movement towards that objective due in the autumn. The country's eight million people remain relatively poor and prone to mafia-style corruption at all levels of their economy and society. Tackling such structural reforms requires a determined political leadership. It will be a small miracle if this can emerge from the present imbroglio.