WORLD VIEW:The forthcoming poll in Burma, ostensibly a step on the road to democracy, will be mere theatre, writes PATRICK SMYTH
THE REBRANDING involves a new flag – horizontal bands of yellow, green and red, with a white star in the centre – a new name, a new seal and a new anthem.
Oh, and a new uniform – the junta will wear civvies instead of military garb. But a junta it will remain, as Burma remains Burma, although rechristened the Republic of the Union of Myanmar from the Union of Myanmar.
(The Irish Times, which has never recognised the renaming of Burma by its military in 1989, will continue to refer to it in its older form, an eccentricity of style that leaves us part of a dwindling anti-revisionist band.)
The flag’s colours, we are told, stand for solidarity, peace and tranquillity, courage and decisiveness – similar colours graced it during Japanese occupation, in the 1940s. And the old flag had to be lowered precisely at 3pm on October 21st, 2010. The numbers all add up to nine, particularly auspicious to Burmese astrologers who hold sway with the brutal regime which has ruled this country of 50 million since 1962.
The rebranding is all about setting the scene for the bigger-stage piece of theatre that is next Sunday’s election, ostensibly a step on the military’s road map to democracy, in practice a deeply flawed, internationally condemned poll. A “farce”, according to Philippine president Benigno Aquino.
It is the first poll since 1990, when Nobel Peace Prize-winner Aung San Suu Kyi’s party won a landslide that was ignored by the military.
Two decades after the election, however, she remains the de facto leader of the democratic opposition.
There have been reports of small protests of a few hundred villagers over last week, with leaders then going into hiding. Rights groups say the number of political prisoners has doubled since 2007, and that at least 2,193 are in jail for peaceful political activity, many enduring what a UN rapporteur has called “systematic torture” and worse – 144 deaths in custody since 1988.
The military has also clamped down on ethnic minorities, including the forced relocation and destruction of villages, forced labour and rape. No international media will be permitted to witness the election.
Suu Kyi, who has been in jail or house arrest for 15 of the last 21 years, is currently serving the last of 18 months in house arrest for the bizarre crime of allowing an American intruder to stay at her home. The authorities say she will be released after the poll, but as a “criminal” was prohibited from taking part. Her party, the dissolved National League for Democracy (NLD), has called a boycott.
Although some 37 small opposition parties have been allowed on the ballot, and the largest of them, the National Democratic Front (NDF) which emerged from the NLD, is advocating participation as a step on the road to democracy, pro-junta parties have 10 times more candidates and 25 per cent of seats are constitutionally reserved for the military.
Polling has also been cancelled in some ethnic areas, depriving three million of votes, because the army claims it can’t supervise balloting, and candidates are asked to pay a steep $500 election fee – the average annual income is $459.
The poll is being conducted in the framework of a new constitution, adopted in 2008, which will come into force after the election when some of the old guard, including leader Gen Than Shwe, are expected to retire to pass power to a new generation of officers in civilian dress.
Although allowing notional civilian rule, the constitution firmly entrenches military power through its reserved seats and a powerful new national defence and security council controlled by the commander-in-chief, who retains control of security ministries and other powers.
Internationally Burma remains a pariah, although some countries have used the pseudo-transition as an excuse to argue for greater engagement. India and China are vying for influence with the regime and are working against sanctions, while the 16-state East Asia Summit this weekend is expected only to express concern.
The 580 million-strong Asean group (Association of South East Asian Nations), of which Burma is a member (with Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam) is working to transform itself into a political, economic and security community by 2015. But it is divided on Burma and its lack of credibility on the issue is reflected in the reality that when its covenant on human rights was created a couple of years ago it was fashioned so the junta could sign it.
At the UN, following a scathing report in March by special rapporteur for human rights in Burma Tomas Ojea Quintana, pressure has been mounting for a UN commission, which could follow the lines of a probe on Darfur that led to an arrest warrant for genocide against Sudanese president Omar al-Bashir.
“There is a pattern of gross and systematic violation of human rights which has been in place for many years and still continues,” Quintana wrote, saying such crimes could amount to war crimes or crimes against humanity. “There is an indication that those human rights violations are the result of a state policy.”
He appealed for a war crimes inquiry against senior officials, including Than Shwe.