Whither the political process in Northern Ireland in the wake of the dramatic and disturbing first report of the Independent Monitoring Commission this week? Nearly 10 years after the first IRA ceasefire and six years after the Belfast Agreement, a political watershed has been reached. The IMC has found that the IRA - the PIRA as it calls it - is highly active in paramilitary shootings short of murder.
It has come across "ample evidence" of an organisation maintaining its capacity to undertake acts of violence or to participate in a terrorist campaign if that seemed necessary to it. Some senior members of Sinn Féin are also senior members of the IRA. There is no way back now.
The days when Sinn Féin could march forward with the Armalite in one hand and the ballot paper in the other are numbered. Not one, two, but three governments have decommissioned their kid gloves. No one was surprised by the IMC's finding that some senior members of Sinn Féin are also senior members of the IRA. Mr Gerry Adams's denials in recent public exchanges with the Taoiseach and the Minister for Justice were incredible. The leadership of Sinn Féin has been indulged in its double-speak over the years of the peace process to allow those same members to exercise their considerable influence over the IRA.
What was shocking, however, was the IMC's conclusion that the IRA "remains active and in a high state of readiness". The magnitude of paramilitary violence from all groups - loyalist and republican - is still such that if it was extrapolated to this State, there would have been 25 murders, 430 shooting victims and 400 assault victims in the past year.
The IMC has reported three months earlier than expected at the request of the British and Irish governments. Some of the content of the report has shocked seasoned observers. Instead of tip-toeing around technicalities as to whether or not a ceasefire has been broken, the IMC has concentrated on the range of illegal activities by paramilitaries.
What prospect then for parallel movement on the political and peace processes in the coming months? The Government asked the British government not to proceed with the formal review of the Belfast Agreement in the coming week. The Ulster Unionist Party has decided to re-enter the review on the basis of the IMC's report. There will be plenty of party politics in the run-up to the European elections, but very little process to move politics foward.
There is no grand strategy to manage the political process over the summer months. It is clear, however, that the IMC's report has brought Sinn Féin and the IRA to a point of no return. They must decommission their army if they want to participate in devolved government. The IRA must be stood down. If the IRA remains active and in a state of readiness for much longer, it will challenge the power base of Sinn Féin.