INSIDE POLITICS:Labour has capitalised more effectively than anybody else on the scale of public anger, writes STEPHEN COLLINS
LABOUR'S GREAT leap forward in the latest Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI poll is a clear sign of fundamental changes taking place in the Irish political landscape in response to the catastrophic downturn in the economy.
Of course an opinion poll is not a general election but becoming the leading party in a poll for the first time gives credence to Labour’s ambition to become the biggest party in the next Dáil with Eamon Gilmore now a realistic contender for the Taoiseach’s office.
Almost everybody in the political world is stunned at the scale of the Labour advance as there was no particularly big event in recent times which can be pointed to as the source of the gains. The two damning indictments of the Government in the banking reports came too late to influence the outcome.
At least part of the explanation is that Labour and its leader have managed to capitalise more effectively than anybody else on the scale of public anger at the political failures that led to the economic downturn. Gilmore has represented the public mood of “get them out” in his habitual condemnations of Fianna Fáil and Brian Cowen in the Dáil.
The Labour leader appears to have captured the mood for change in a similar way to Liberal leader Nick Clegg in the recent British election. At his party’s national conference in April, Gilmore cited the Clegg example as a reason why he should be involved in any leaders’ debate at the next election and he is clearly having an impact with the Irish electorate comparable to that of the Liberal leader with UK voters.
A striking feature of the approach by Gilmore and his party to the recession is a refusal to commit to what kind of hard decisions, if any, the party would take in Government. Labour’s decision to vote against the bank guarantee, its total opposition to Nama and its condemnation of all public spending cuts taken by the Government in response to the crisis has clearly gone down well with the public.
Gilmore’s refusal to be drawn on whether he believed the Croke Park deal was a good thing was symptomatic of an approach designed to avoid making enemies in any quarter and, while it has drawn criticism from his political opponents, the tactic has certainly paid off with the voters.
It seems that the public wants the Opposition to vent the anger so widely felt at the current plight of the country rather than telling them about the detailed and inevitably painful solutions required no matter who is in government. Giving effective expression to the widespread mood for change, while leaving the grubby detail of spending cuts until after the election, was what Clegg did in the British election and Gilmore is doing the same here.
Whether that tactic will be enough to keep Labour in first place up to an election and right through the campaign is impossible to say at this stage. The poll surge could create an irresistible momentum that will make Labour unstoppable and transform it into the biggest party in the country for the first time in its history. It would be an astonishing 100th anniversary present for the party to achieve that objective by 2012 a century after its foundation in Clonmel by James Connolly and James Larkin.
It is also possible that its new- found status as the leading party in the poll will focus real attention for the first time on the lack of detail about what Labour actually proposes to do about the central issue facing the country when it gets into power. Then again, it’s a moot point whether voters want to be told the hard facts before an election. The swing to Fianna Fáil in the last election represented a flight from reality and the likelihood is that the electorate may not thank the politicians who have the courage to try to tell them the truth next time around either.
Fine Gael strategists believe that one of the reasons the party has slipped back in the poll is precisely because it has coupled its attacks on Government policy with support for some of the tough decisions such as the introduction of the bank guarantee and tighter control of public spending.
Fine Gael has also tried to come up with comprehensive policies on the economy, health and political reform but these have proved difficult to explain to the public while they have made enemies among those who would be affected in the semi-State sector or the public service. It seems that the old mantra of political pundits that politics should be about policies not personalities is exactly the reverse of reality.
The other major issue for Fine Gael is the party leader. Enda Kenny has always struggled to strike a chord with the public. The fact that more people would prefer neither himself or Brian Cowen to be Taoiseach, than would support either of them for the job, is a telling blow at this stage in the life of the Dáil.
What will stand to Kenny, though, is that he is liked and respected by the Fine Gael organisation and has few real enemies in the parliamentary party. His main potential rival is deputy leader Richard Bruton who is highly respected for his economic expertise as well as his personal qualities but it is those very qualities of honour and decency that may make him loathe to mount a challenge.
Fine Gael has bitter memories of the blood-letting that did so much damage to the party and almost led to its extinction in 2002 and TDs may be slow to move against Kenny on the basis of one poll. Leo Varadkar’s observation yesterday, that the real battle now is between Fine Gael and Labour to see which will be the biggest party in the Dáil at the next election, is something many in the party would have been only too happy to contemplate a few years ago.
As for Fianna Fáil, it is clear that the party’s role in presiding over the disastrous policies of the past decade has done it dreadful damage in the eyes of the public. The party is headed for Opposition after the next election and the only question is the scale of its defeat.
For Fianna Fáil as for Fine Gael the issue is whether to persist with the leader it has or make a change at this late stage in the lifetime of the Dáil. At present there is no mood in Fianna Fáil for a leadership heave and no evidence that anybody else wants Cowen’s job. However, the old cliche that a week is a long time in politics is pertinent for both Kenny and Cowen and both will breathe a sigh of relief if they make it to the Dáil summer break in a few weeks.