This is a critical week in the history of Northern Ireland with the old ways of the Twelfth inextricably linked with the new politics promised in The Way Forward. It will begin with today's march by 20,000 Orangemen to the new destination of Ormeau Park, only yards away from the nationalist district of the Ormeau Road. The Parades Commission, for its own good reasons, decided at the weekend to allow the Orange Order's Belfast lodges to re-route their parade away from their traditional location at Edenderry because the organisers had "gone to some length" to address its concerns about public order. The commission's decision to lift its original ban has already been welcomed by Mr David Trimble and criticised by members of the SDLP. The wisdom of the commission's about-turn, on such a significant week in Northern Ireland's political calendar, remains to be seen. What is clear, however, is that a non-contentious Twelfth this year is almost a prerequisite for the important decisions to be taken in the days that follow.
The British Government will publish its "failsafe" legislation later today, setting out its guarantees in the event that the devolution or decommissioning commitments are not met in accordance with The Way Forward proposals. It seems, at this writing, that the Bill will promise to activate the review provisions in the Belfast Agreement leading to the suspension of the institutions if there is a default on either commitment. The Bill is not expected to meet Mr Trimble's demand for the automatic exclusion of Sinn Fein if the IRA does not meet the decommissioning timetable. It will be debated in the House of Commons tomorrow and in the Lords on Wednesday.
The Ulster Unionist Party executive meets on Wednesday night in a bid to formulate its final response to Mr Tony Blair's and Mr Bertie Ahern's most even-handed attempt to resolve the devolution/decommissioning problem. They propose to trigger the D'Hondt procedure to nominate ministers to the Executive on Thursday, that the Devolution Order would be laid before the British Parliament on Friday to take effect next Sunday. Mr Ahern would certify the changes to Articles 2 and 3 of the Constitution on behalf of the people of this State that same day.
With Mr Trimble persisting in stating that he will have extreme difficulties recommending acceptance of the proposals without further concessions, the value of a statement from the IRA in coming days indicating its intention to abide by the propositions in The Way Forward could do much to ease the UUP leader's position. Mr John Hume, the originator of the inclusive peace process, has made it clear he cannot oblige Mr Trimble with a statement promising that the SDLP would exclude Sinn Fein from the executive in the event of a default on decommissioning.
Though the omens are not good heading into the week of the Twelfth, there is so much to play for that it would be foolhardy to come to pessimistic conclusions before events unfold. Mr Trimble suggested last week that an opinion poll would be helpful. The results of The Irish Times/MRBI poll showing that 60 per cent of his party's supporters favour the establishment of the executive as planned in The Way Forward must offer encouragement. The greater unionist community is narrowly divided 47-42 on the issue but these figures are weighted by the resistance of the DUP whose members would take their seats in the Executive.