So there is to be a real contest for the first time in 10 years. Fianna Fáil's worst fears are realised by the findings of today's Irish Times/TNS mrbi opinion poll showing that support for the party has declined to 34 per cent in a matter of months. The Fine Gael party is only three percentage points behind. A lot can happen over the course of a campaign but the Taoiseach should be worried by the trends. If public voting intentions remain constant up to polling day, a change of government would be the outcome.
With Bertie Ahern declining to name a date and a three, maybe four-week election campaign in the offing, there is plenty of time for Fianna Fáil to stage a recovery. It will be encouraged by the fact that one in five respondents are still undecided on how they will vote. But, with Government dissatisfaction levels running at 49 per cent overall - 57 per cent in Dublin - it faces a mammoth task.
The poll will give credibility to the concept of an alternative government and level the playing pitch in the run-up to the formal campaign. Fine Gael has increased its vote to 31 per cent - up five points since January - achieving its highest level of support in 10 years. The timing could not be better to boost party morale and give the electorate some confidence about the prospects of forming an alternative government. Combined support for Fine Gael and the Labour Party now exceeds that of Fianna Fáil and the Progressive Democrats by four points.
The task facing Enda Kenny is to consolidate that newly-won approval during the coming weeks. In that regard, the Fine Gael leader and would-be taoiseach has a great deal to do. With the exception of Michael McDowell, he trails all other party leaders in terms of public satisfaction with his performance.
There is a high degree of volatility among voters at this crucial time. They are certainly dissatisfied with the performance of Government, but they do not appear to have reached fixed conclusions in terms of party commitment. A sudden surge in support for the Green Party, that manifested itself last January, has fallen by half, with Fine Gael and Sinn Féin making further ground at the expense of Fianna Fáil. Support for the Labour Party has declined marginally. And the Progressive Democrats have made up lost ground. Voter approval for Independent candidates has fallen dramatically.
These swings in support should contribute to a fascinating election campaign. The Fianna Fáil/Progressive Democrats Coalition is fighting for its existence. Fine Gael's deliberate strategy not to trade in auction politics may pay off. A slowing economy could cause the electorate to reassess its attitude towards Fianna Fáil. There is a message from this poll, however, that Fianna Fáil was wrong to engage in auction politics at its ardfheis. Its ace card in this election was always going to be its credibility and competence in guarding the Celtic Tiger.