The perception of a "rip-off" economy has set Middle Ireland looking for its political voice - but can the major parties rise to the challenge? asks Marc Coleman, Economics Editor
It appears that the Celtic Tiger has awoken a sleeping tiger. According to recent opinion polls, 89 per cent of us believe we are being ripped off and that government is significantly responsible. As a result, support for Fianna Fáil has fallen to 32 per cent. This is roughly the level of support Fianna Fáil received in last year's local elections and if maintained at the next election would see it returned to the Dáil with around 15 fewer seats.
Maybe the reasons for this are short term and curable. But maybe not: Perhaps the Celtic Tiger is combining with social change to do more permanent damage to our traditional political system. After years in which bales of the stuff have been mounting on the camel's back, Eddie Hobbs has put the final straw on top of the pile, producing the sound of a spinal crack.
Although economic change can drive political change this is usually a glacial process. But - rather like leaving a camera in front of a budding flower for weeks and then fast forwarding it - an examination of poll evidence from recent history can make such slow processes discernible to the eye.
Most pollsters are interested in shifts of support between the two main parties. But what is interesting in this context is support for the traditional party divide. The combined vote for the two Civil War parties, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, has fallen from 84 per cent of the vote in 1982 to just 57 per cent now.
In the last quarter of a century, one quarter of the electorate has switched away from the traditional parties. But over this period we have moved from being an economic basket case to being, according to the UN at least, the world's second wealthiest country.
So why are people deserting the two parties that have dominated government since the foundation of the State? Allow me to offer a theory.
The first reason is that there is a growing divide between what we might call the "competitive classes" on the one hand and the "protected classes" on the other. Take benchmarking for example. This exercise was motivated by the feeling of public servants that they had been left behind by the Celtic Tiger.
But when its awards were paid, many in the private sector pointed to public servants' job security, pension entitlements and public sector inefficiency as reasons why it should never have been undertaken.
In spite of this, the Government awarded significant pay increases to public sector workers. Benchmarking does have some merits. But by not publishing the results of the benchmarking survey, the Government made a costly error. It asked the private sector to foot the bill for benchmarking, but refused to trust the private sector with information needed to justify the exercise.
Rip-off Ireland, or the perception of it, is another factor damaging the political system. The Government is seen as the friend of vested interests. By contrast, most in the private sector face intense competition due to immigration, globalisation and the pressures of a single market. Closed shops and protected sectors are increasingly seen as privileges enjoyed by a pampered elite, and paid for by the rest of us who have to make our way in the real world. Economic reforms have been achieved, of course. But whether they go fast or far enough is another question.
So to many the question "who gets the lion's share of the economic tiger?" is answered not by "those who worked the hardest", but by "those who shout the loudest". Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil are particularly vulnerable to this trend. The declines they have suffered in their party membership since the 1990s makes it more difficult for those parties to stay in touch with the silent majority.
The growing urbanisation of Ireland may also be a factor. In last year's local elections support for Fianna Fáil was significantly lower in many urban areas than in adjoining rural areas. Urban voters may be less loyal to traditional party brands. Urban TDs may also be less susceptible to lobbying by local interests, such as publicans, as those interests may not play the important social role that they often do in rural areas. The recent sight of rural TDs from both Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael lobbying effectively against café bar licences may have been perceived strongly negatively in urban areas.
Further factors add grist to the mill, including a younger, less patient and more educated electorate as well as the fact that the relevance of the Civil War divide is receding in political importance.
However deep and strong the forces driving it, realising political change usually requires a defining event to happen. Enter Eddie Hobbs. In 2000 Malcolm Gladwell wrote a number one best seller called The Tipping Point. The idea is that change accumulates slowly but remains inactive, until a certain point where it accelerates and is unstoppable. On its own, his programme may have done nothing overly serious, other than vent short-term spleen. But the Government's reaction reinforced an image of an establishment that is running scared and out of touch.
Now Fianna Fáil faces the challenge of recovering lost support from the "competitive classes", especially in urban areas. Its strategy so far is to call on outside experts and gurus. This was tried by Fine Gael in the 1990s without success. But basic management theory dictates that such approaches usually fail. Rather, an organisation seeking solutions to strategic problems must draw from its own heritage. In 1958 Sean Lemass courageously faced down opposition as he ended external protectionism. As Fianna Fáil faces the policy challenge of internal protectionism in our economy, it could do a lot worse than recalling the vision and boldness of Lemass.
And there are questions for other parties: Why has the Labour Party failed to garner significantly more than 10 per cent of the vote when one third of the vote is going to the left, broadly defined? How consistent will Fine Gael's central theme of "Rip-off Ireland" be with the policies that will emerge from its meeting in Portlaoise?
Will the Progressive Democrats enter the next election with their radical ethos vindicated or fatally compromised? A final, tantalizing question is : If none of the parties is able to recapture Middle Ireland, could an entirely new party emerge to represent it?