There is hardly any possibility of a substantial advance at the latest round of talks to be held in Belfast today, led by the Taoiseach and Mr Blair. Officials and other well-placed sources speak of a "mini-deal" and "interim" measures. Metaphors are in circulation which have the major issues being "parked" or "put on ice" until after the British general election.
A stop-start prognosis for the peace process is dismaying. But it does not necessarily presage catastrophe. If there is no major violence, there is probably sufficient stability in the process now to enable it to survive a couple of months of marking time. But it cannot be more than that. Unless the momentum can be picked up swiftly after the Westminster election, the Agreement will "bleed away" as Deputy First Minister, Seamus Mallon, put it graphically last week.
However, the enemies of the Agreement will not be inactive over such a period. Those who are intent on deposing Mr Trimble will contest the election with powerful propaganda weapons at their disposal; the paralysis of politics and the failure of the Agreement to bring a disarmed republican movement fully into the democratic fold. Simultaneously, dissident republican groups will crow about lack of progress through peace. And they will have some success in recruiting to their own ranks, offering a deadly - but saleable - alternative to those who believe that the Sinn Fein/ IRA leadership has failed to deliver. The weekend attack on the BBC studios in west London was, by its own sinister calculus, an undoubted success for the socalled "Real IRA".
That attack should have the effect of concentrating minds among the democratically-committed parties which are signatories to the Belfast Agreement. If the dissident republican elements continue their campaign it must be almost inevitable that sooner or later there will be another atrocity - another Omagh, Warrington or Canary Wharf. If the peace process is on hold, if the issues of policing, decommissioning and demilitarisation remain unresolved, the impact of such a crime would be seismic.
The best that can be put on offer to advance matters at present, it appears, is some sort of a holding deal. A proposal for round-table talks came initially from Mr John Hume and was amplified yesterday in this newspaper by Mr Sean Farren. But simple reiteration of positions must be fruitless unless there is a willingness to move forward from them. The IRA must credibly and permanently engage with General de Chastelain's decommissioning body. Sinn Fein and the SDLP must have the courage of their convictions and go for the far-reaching policing reforms which are on offer.
The British government must also decide if it is willing to take the undoubted risks of further demilitarisation. The threat to security personnel in certain republican areas is high and security chiefs, whether police or military, will inevitably argue against anything which adds to it. Only the political authority can lead in this situation. Political leadership is about risk. If those who sit down to talks now allow their actions to be determined by a policy of risk-avoidance they will be wasting their own time and everybody else's.