The Cabinet decision on Dublin airport provides dramatic evidence of the shift in the balance of power in Government away from the PDs, writes Mark Brennock, Chief Political Correspondent
Before summer of last year Séamus Brennan, the scourge of the trade unions, was minister for transport. Charlie McCreevy was minister for finance. Together with the Tánaiste Mary Harney, there is little doubt but that they would have ensured an independent second terminal was agreed for Dublin airport.
But now Séamus Brennan is sidelined in the Department of Social and Family Affairs, Charlie McCreevy is in Brussels, Fianna Fáil has been to Inchydoney and the Taoiseach is a socialist. The Cabinet is a lonelier place for a PD now.
Martin Cullen is Minister for Transport in charge of aviation policy. And what a difference this change has made. The independently built, owned and operated second terminal concept favoured by the PDs - seen as sensible by Séamus Brennan less than two years ago - was dismissed last week as an "abject failure" by Martin Cullen.
Cullen is a former PD deputy but he has run with what is believed to be the Taoiseach's view. The old axis that set the Government's tone on many key issues for seven years has been broken up and last night's decision is the most dramatic result of this.
The political relationship between McCreevy and Harney in the 1997 - 2004 period was the single most important one in defining the Government's project. Possibly the most flamboyant gesture from that axis came after the May 2001 Cabinet meeting at Ballymascanlon dealing with health. The press was invited to witness the Government's concern over the health services. Micheál Martin made a sombre presentation to Ministers. Then Charlie McCreevy emerged to announce that the Department of Health would have to join the queue if it wanted any more money.
He would not have got away with this almost contemptuous dismissal of the argument that health services needed more investment without knowing he had Harney's support. It was Harney and McCreevy who persuaded people that what health needed was reform, not money.
They set the economic tone of the Coalition. The extraordinary boom they were elected to run meant tax cuts were inevitable.
But the scale of the cuts and the more controversial changes such as the cuts in Capital Gains Tax and tax individualisation would have been most unlikely without their input. McCreevy's backing of Harney also finally scuppered the Taoiseach's dream of a stadium at Abbotstown.
Fianna Fáil TDs grew more and more uncomfortable with this as the years passed. There were occasional rhetorical bursts of frustration from backbenchers about a right-wing PD tail wagging the Fianna Fáil dog.
After the devastation wreaked on Fianna Fáil by voters in last June's local and European elections, the Taoiseach decided to act. The response to Fianna Fáil candidates on doorsteps had produced the same message: people thought the Government was arrogant, out of touch and right wing. So the reshuffle, the Inchydoney trip and the hyping of the social spending in the Budget have all been designed to emphasise Fianna Fáil's social concern.
Since last autumn's Cabinet reshuffle there has been a growing suspicion that the Fianna Fáil/PD marriage is becoming more and more loveless. Ahern's rush to redefine his party as full of social concern deeply irritated the PDs: they saw his move as implying that the PDs weren't socially caring at all. The Budget had lots of judicious social spending with hardly a tax cut to be seen. The media portrayed it as a sign of "real" Fianna Fáil retaking control. The PDs were unhappy.
But it is on the airport issue that the Taoiseach's new trade-union friendly grip on the Government's steering wheel has become clear. While the Government has been derided for failing to reach a decision for months, those months saw painstaking negotiations involving a steady softening up of the PD position.
The Progressive Democrats started out wanting not just one new independent terminal at Dublin airport, but several which would be independently built, owned and operated. "The Progressive Democrats will facilitate the development of new, independent terminals at Dublin airport which would be funded entirely by the private sector," the party's 2002 election manifesto said.
As late as March this year the party was insisting the second terminal must be independently owned. In April, PD Senator Tom Morrissey - used by the party to express its views in public while the Tánaiste was in behind-the-scenes negotiations - spoke, making it clear this was the PDs' view.
But within days Cullen made it clear that it wasn't his view. He wanted the Dublin Airport Authority to build and own the new terminal. Not only that, the authority could end up running it if they won the tendering competition.
PD sources said they weren't having it. When Harney said she wanted competition at the airport, she meant that the authority should not run the second terminal. Therefore it should not be allowed enter the tendering process in the first place.
However, by May 9th this position had changed. While Harney repeated her desire to see "competition at the airport", she said: "We can put the proposal out to tender and let the best tender win, even if that included DAA because it was selected after a tender and after competition."
Days later the third terminal option emerged. PD sources pointed out last night that the authority would not necessarily win the competition to run Terminal 2. If they do, the PDs say, Terminal 3 will finally bring competition between terminals they have sought for so long. But not necessarily so: there is no commitment in last night's decision to have the third terminal built, owned and operated by an independent body either.
Yesterday's announcement may mark an end to the drift away from the consensus way of doing business favoured by the Taoiseach. Last year the Government and Ictu agreed on the principles that the pay and conditions of airport workers must be retained at current levels, and that the right to trade union membership for the purpose of collective bargaining be recognised. Mr Cullen said last night that these terms "will be reflected in the criteria for the competition". So those seeking to run the new terminal must pay heed.
The Dublin Airport Authority and the trade unions are identified by the PDs and by Ryanair as being a central part of Dublin airport's malaise. They will now be a central part of Terminal 2. Which is the way the Taoiseach would have wanted it, and the PDs might not.