The encouraging news from Albania that President Berisha has reached agreement with the opposition on elections and an arms amnesty is the first real indication that its crisis is capable of political resolution. Coming after many days of disintegrating security and economic conditions that seemed to be leading inexorably to civil war, this agreement is also a welcome indication that Albanian leaders are willing to respond to pressure and mediation from European and regional leaders increasingly concerned about the wider consequences of an unresolved conflict there.
It remains to be seen whether the agreement reached last night will be adhered to by all the opposition forces and parties. The indications last night were that most of them would do so. But the intoxicating seizure of arms and local control in the south of the country may be more difficult to bring under control than appears from the nine point deal reached in Tirana. Many political actors in the south of the country are profoundly opposed to President Berisha remaining in power any longer, and elements of the army leadership he deposed have reportedly assumed control in several of the rebel towns. Their demand that he relinquish power before they hand in the weapons under their control could as yet provoke the civil conflict this agreement is intended to prevent.
The President has, nonetheless, made several significant concessions. By agreeing to fresh elections he is acknowledging the force of opposition objections to the poll last May which is widely assumed to have been rigged in his favour. The three month period before they are held will give his opponents ample time to organise and prepare their case. All concerned will become increasingly aware that promises of economic aid from European mediators to help compensate Albanian savers for the pyramid companies' collapse which provoked this crisis will be contingent upon good democratic behaviour. But those who have lost most and who are realistic enough to know that full compensation is not on the cards may be tempted to prolong the conflict in order to gain particular advantage. They must be aware that accomplished military facts on the ground have played as important a role as international involvement in reaching yesterday's agreement.
After a belated and inconclusive initial response Albania's European neighbours have proved more adept in the last week than might have been expected from their initial involvement. This agreement comes under the aegis of the Organisation for Security and Co operation in Europe, whose envoy, the former Austrian chancellor, Mr Frans Vranitsky, is both knowledgeable and experienced in Balkan affairs. The European Union involvement was orchestrated effectively by the Dutch presidency, while the Italians have taken the initiative to broker diplomatic engagement in a conflict which, uncontrolled, has real potential to spread refugees and instability to their shores.
As many observers have pointed out in recent days, the regional consequences of diplomatic inaction or failure, in Serbia, Kosovo, Macedonia and Greece, could be profoundly destabilising. Having intervened with such effect, it will not be possible for the EU and OSCE to relax their efforts to bring political stability and economic progress back to Albania.