'ADVOCATING INSTITUTIONAL reform to voters who have such a sketchy knowledge of how the EU operates is a very difficult task." One of the key lessons of the worthwhile research published yesterday by the Government on why people voted as they did in June's Lisbon Treaty referendum is contained in this sentence from the report.
Along with other surveys it should provide a reliable basis for political analysis and debate on the options facing Ireland as the consequences of the No vote become more clear this autumn. Other EU member states are expecting to hear firm Irish proposals on how to proceed by the end of the year, especially if, as expected, we are the only state not to ratify the treaty.
Although the turnout of 53 per cent was substantially higher than previous such votes, most people who abstained did so because they lacked understanding or knowledge of the treaty, and most who voted No did so for the same reason. Major issues including military neutrality, fear of conscription, excessive regulation, workers' rights, the regular loss of a commissioner, the influence of small states and abortion rights sharply divided voters despite this lack of knowledge and understanding.
But another key finding is that most Irish people consider EU membership a good thing, including 63 per cent of those who voted No. They want Ireland to remain at the heart of the EU. Hard Euroscepticism is a small, though growing, segment of the electorate. Another clear finding is that younger voters, particularly poorer and less educated ones, lack a convincing case as to why EU membership is valuable for Ireland.
Voters have a poor objective knowledge of how the EU works, especially on the No side. This extends well beyond the Lisbon framework to encompass basic understanding of its purposes, membership and functioning. This is a lamentable state of affairs in a modern democracy which shares so many decisions with other states. It is an indictment not only of the Irish referendum campaign, but of the EU, its leadership and its institutions at large. When compounded by a definite loss of trust in leaders and parties in Ireland, it amounts to a dangerous loss of legitimacy for our political system. This survey finds 50 per cent of voters do not feel close to any of the political parties. It was not surprising then that those who normally vote for one or other of them failed to follow their advice on the treaty.
Despite these democratic shortcomings there is much material here to encourage the sharp debate needed on where we should go from here. About a quarter of those who voted had soft Yes or No positions capable of being changed by better arguments, changed circumstances or more accurate information. Many voters were angry and frustrated about their lack of knowledge and understanding and could be further angered by another referendum. But if the Government decides this is necessary the survey suggests they could be swayed by a more effective campaign which addresses their concerns and fuller information about how possible marginalisation or exclusion from the EU would affect Ireland.