The shock of New Yorkers confronted with yet another disaster in the shape of yesterday's crash of an American Airlines plane - in which at least 255 people died - was immediately apparent in their frantic reactions on the streets. Later, that shock was reflected on the stock markets. In the confusion following the first reports, there was speculation that the crash may have been another terrorist attack on the city, although it now appears to have been a tragic accident. But coming alongside further dramatic news that the Northern Alliance forces have advanced to within a few miles of the Afghan capital, Kabul, this crash underlines the vulnerability of New Yorkers and the international community alike, since the attacks on September 11th.
This crash is a dreadful event in itself, for the passengers, crew and residents of the Queens neighbourhood who were killed. It is bound to reinforce the fear of flying that has crippled many airlines and blighted the tourism industry in the United States and Europe over the last two months. There will be many questions about how it could have happened, following the increased security and surveillance put in place. Many Americans are concerned about how the anthrax scare has been handled, with much more attention apparently being paid to congressional aides than post-office workers. There will be little patience for the authorities if it is shown that this accident resulted from inadequate or preventable regulation.
Confidence is an essential ingredient of public life in the US since September 11th. There have been some signs that it was returning in New York, if theatre bookings, the gradual rise in economic activity, and the slow growth of tourist traffic are reliable indicators. This crash throws all these elements into doubt again. But it would be wrong to draw too many conclusions from it. If it proves to have been a conventional air accident, with no extraneous involvement or culpable mishandling, it is possible New Yorkers' natural resilience will reappear quite soon. That would depend heavily on whether there is a wider expectation of returning confidence in the economy and the war against terrorism in Afghanistan.
News that the war has developed so dramatically in recent days, puts the future of Afghanistan at the centre of the international agenda. It is essential that a credible plan be drawn up rapidly to provide for an interim administration should the Taliban regime be overthrown. If that were to be accomplished successfully, it could have unanticipated effects on international political and economic confidence - such is the inter-connectedness of these affairs in today's world.
But a great deal hangs on how effectively the crisis is managed. President Bush's message to Americans to demonstrate their confidence by continuing to travel and go about their business, will have the backing of many there and elsewhere. They will be much more willing to do so if events in Afghanistan reach a satisfactory conclusion sooner than has been expected.