In the latter half of 1997 the epicentre of world events was in Asia. The debt and currency crises afflicting its tiger economies were rapidly seen to affect international growth prospects. They put a question mark over other fast development models, not least Ireland's. The international environment was brought into focus by the dark cloud that hung over south-east Asia for two months in the autumn, caused by speculative forest-clearing in Indonesia but reinforced by environmental degradation throughout the region, and then by the agreement at the Kyoto conference this month on mandatory reductions of greenhouse gases. Throughout the year the emergence of China as a major world power was charted, notably by the restitution of its sovereignty over Hong Kong.
As the World Review 1997 published with today's editions makes clear, the world is therefore becoming smaller, and more interdependent, creating a greater need to know how events in one part affect all the others and necessitating new ways of thinking about international affairs after the end of the Cold War. The United States remains the only superpower, with global interests and perceived responsibilities. But it is increasingly inward-looking; despite President Clinton's engaged internationalism its leading politicians have less and less experience of and interest in world affairs. This is paradoxical, since the globalisation processes which have increasingly engaged the attention of political leaders in Europe and Asia are usually assumed to benefit the US over all others. One important trend is a reordering of relations between the US and Europe.
The response to the end of the Cold War in this continent became much clearer in 1997, as the European Union agreed to a phased enlargement to take in at least 11 states. Turkey's refusal to accept a qualified invitation to join leaves a large question mark over the future boundaries of an enlarged EU. NATO enlargement to take in Poland, the Czech Republic and Hungary was also agreed. This will bind the US more into Europe, just when the second ambitious continental project, economic and monetary union, puts strain on the dollar's role as an international reserve currency. There will be more competition between the EU and the US across a span of economic, foreign and environmental policies.
One writer, Robert Cooper, suggests usefully that in addition to these three power geographical centres of the contemporary world, there are three categories of states after the end of the Cold War. He distinguishes between "post-modern" states, which have agreed to pool sovereignty (mostly in Europe), "modern" ones such as China, Brazil and Iraq which remain jealous of their state sovereignty, and "pre-modern" ones, such as Somalia, Afghanistan or Albania, states disintegrating into chaos. The boundaries between them will continue to determine much of world politics in the coming year.
Ireland has historically experienced all three conditions, being aptly described as "a First World country, but with a Third World memory". Undoubtedly this is one of this State's most significant foreign policy resources. But it is rapidly being eroded by the disgraceful treatment of refugees and asylum seekers from the modern and pre-modern worlds that has disfigured this State in 1997, 150 years on from the Great Famine.
An imaginative way for the Government to retrieve our international reputation in 1998 would be to declare an amnesty for those already here and start afresh with fairer and non-racist procedures to handle the matter.