With an election due within a matter of weeks, a coalition government involving Fine Gael, the Labour Party and possibly the Green Party is now the preferred choice of a majority of voters. The narrowness of the margin over Fianna Fáil and the Progressive Democrats, however, and the fact that the electorate is unconvinced its wishes can be achieved, leaves the contest wide open.
This dichotomy, between what people want to happen and what they expect to occur, has been evident for some time. It reflects a failure by the main Opposition parties to project a compelling, cohesive image as an alternative to the present Government. An intensive selling job will have to be done by Enda Kenny and Pat Rabbitte if they are to rally their supporters and convince them of the viability of their project. In spite of that, if the electorate votes for political parties in accordance with the findings of the latest Irish Times/TNS mrbi opinion poll, a change of government is inevitable.
The Taoiseach's continuing failure to set an election date and the growing frustration of Dáil contestants has added to the political uncertainty. That may have a positive impact if the increased media attention encourages voter participation. But if a perception develops that Mr Ahern is reluctant to face the electorate, Fianna Fáil could suffer damage.
A single percentage point separates supporters of the main government options, with majorities in Dublin and Leinster favouring change while voters in Munster and Connacht/Ulster would prefer to see Fianna Fáil and the PDs being returned to office. When it comes to assessing the likely outcome of the election, however, significant majorities in all four regions expect a return to the status quo.
General dissatisfaction with the performance of Government, which has not yet translated into a determined rejection, offers a real opportunity for Fianna Fáil to rescue its fortunes. If the main government options fail to win a majority of seats, alternative Fianna Fáil-led arrangements involving the Labour Party, the Green Party and Sinn Féin all attract substantial support. A Fianna Fáil/Labour Party coalition is the most favoured option. And while Sinn Féin supporters are most anxious for an alliance with Fianna Fáil, that desire is not reciprocated to any significant extent.
Turning to the personal perception of voters, a broad majority are satisfied with their prospects for the future and a lesser majority are confident in the state of the economy. That comfort zone could work two ways. It should provide Fine Gael and the Labour Party with an opportunity to promote policies that are reasonable, affordable, while emphasising ministerial waste, unaccountability and failure to deliver on public services. But, an aggressive Fianna Fáil campaign, based on the dangers posed to a slowing economy by an untried, alternative government, could also cause voters to reconsider their options. Whatever happens, it will be a fascinating contest.