There has been a change in the electorate's attitude to Sinn Féin in recent years and towards its participation in a future coalition government, according to the latest Irish Times/TNS mrbi opinion poll. Its involvement in a power-sharing executive in Northern Ireland under the Belfast Agreement, combined with long-drawn out negotiations involving the Irish and British governments, has provided Sinn Féin with an aura of political respectability, notwithstanding its symbiotic relationship with the Provisional IRA.
Nearly half of the electorate believes that Sinn Féin is working towards the ending of all paramilitary violence and criminal activity, according to the poll. And almost four out of 10 voters found it acceptable that they should participate in a coalition government. At the same time - and before the most recent IRA denial from P O'Neill - some 47 per cent of those questioned believed the IRA had been responsible for the Northern Bank robbery.
The views of the public tend to reflect the broad objectives of the Government as it seeks to bring about disbandment of the IRA and the commitment of Sinn Féin to purely democratic means. In that regard, nearly two-thirds of those questioned opposed the suspension of negotiations with Sinn Féin, pending a verified end to criminal activity by the IRA.
The difficulties of the governments are obvious. And the threat to the fabric of our democracy is very real. Encouraging republicans to abandon paramilitary violence was a creative and finely-balanced project that greatly rewarded Sinn Féin. It is now the largest nationalist party in Northern Ireland; the fourth-largest in this State, at 9 per cent, and growing. But, in spite of various understandings and commitments, the IRA has not gone away. In that regard, the most optimistic finding of the poll is that 90 per cent of Sinn Féin supporters believe the leadership is committed to ending all paramilitary violence and criminal activity.
Sinn Féin has gradually extended its support base across all age groups and social strata in this State. Its organisation is strongest in Dublin and in Connacht/Ulster, but it has a sizable following in Leinster and Munster. There has been no great leap forward in recent years, just slow, persistent growth. Its following is predominantly young, male and working-class but, as happened in Northern Ireland, that may change.
Opposition to the party's participation in government in the Republic is most pronounced amongst Fine Gael and Progressive Democrats voters. But a majority within Fianna Fáil also finds such a development unacceptable. In spite of that, respondents divided evenly on the issue, with a majority of voters under 35 in favour. Sinn Féin is now well placed to exploit its position after the next election. In light of constitutional requirements, however, it will not - and should not - be treated as a potential partner in government until the IRA has disbanded and all paramilitary and criminal activities have ceased.