Violence has a devastating capacity to polarise and destabilise south Balkan countries poised between peace and war. By playing that card in Macedonia over recent days the Kosovo Liberation Army has demonstrated all too clearly how true this depressing reality remains. Having been rebuffed politically in Kosovo and prevented from provoking the Serb army in the Presevo Valley region, KLA leaders diverted their activities to take on the Macedonian armed forces. Despite their political isolation the appeal to violence has provoked an equivalent response and made political dialogue much more difficult.
It is difficult but essential to prevent this confrontation unravelling the delicate political balance between the different communities in Macedonia. A great deal depends on how the leaders of the mainstream Albanian parties in Kosovo respond to international pressure in coming days. A firm majority of them has rejected violence in favour of political engagement with their opponents, an approach that has been strongly supported by Kosovar voters. They were reminded robustly of these facts yesterday by a senior European Union delegation, which told them aid programmes would be gravely affected if they fail to reject the KLA's resort to violence and support political dialogue. Mr Chris Patten said "violence in Macedonia will wreck any effort to rebuild the economy in Kosovo".
Alongside these warnings about aid the NATO-controlled Kfor force has done little about the fighting in Macedonia, following its brokerage of a ceasefire between KLA forces and the Serb army in Presevo Valley last week. That looked like a proactive effort to contain the violence; but Kfor has been unable to do anything about the switch of activity from there to Macedonia this week. It has been justifiably criticised for not policing the border areas more rigorously to prevent KLA forces transferring. Given the issues at stake in Macedonia this is no time for caution or prevarication.
This is the first major crisis to confront the EU's new foreign policy and security apparatus. It has been designed precisely to handle such a conflict. The Macedonian prime minister will be in Stockholm today to meet EU leaders. They are sure to offer him full support, based on the need to maintain Macedonia's territorial integrity by helping to develop its economy in the longer term and shoring up its security forces in a shorter term perspective.
They should also be ready with political advice. A solely military response to the KLA violence and an outright refusal to respond politically will probably rebound negatively. Excessive use of force could turn the whole Albanian minority against the Macedonian majority, falling into the trap set by the KLA's use of violence. They attract support partly because it is felt by the minority that reforms have not been effectively delivered upon, even though two moderate Albanian parties are in the coalition. Unless politics can be seen to deliver change, Macedonia could become another Bosnia.