DRAPIER - An Insider's Guide to Politics: In case you missed it, Bertie Ahern has announced that he will be leaving politics and it could be sooner than expected. This was one of the reasons he gave on RTÉ's This Week programme for not seeking the Presidency of the European Commission.
He has a date in mind for leaving politics and therefore could not take on a five-year commitment. A general election is due in less than three years. If Bertie Ahern leads Fianna Fáil into the next general election he will be leader for a maximum of 18 months thereafter. Bertie never gives hostages to fortune so Drapier wonders why he has trotted out this piece of information now. Could it be that he is hoping to head off the posse by announcing that he will be going in his own time?
John Bruton's prospects of becoming EU ambassador to Washington may have improved now that Portuguese Prime Minister Barroso has been nominated for Commission President. He is part of the European People's Party grouping, the largest in the European Parliament.
Fine Gael is part of this group but it does not have sufficient votes to ratify the appointment of Barroso when the parliament meets in two weeks' time. Therefore there will be a trade-off with the Socialist group, the second- largest group, which includes Labour. A Socialist will be president of the European Parliament for the first two- and-a-half years, followed by a Christian Democrat member.
Fianna Fáil's MEPs seem to have won their battle against the party leadership which wanted them to change to the Liberal group. They seem set to continue to languish in one of the smallest European Parliament groupings, the right-wing UEM. However, there was speculation during the week that Brian Crowley could become leader of this group, which might in some way compensate.
Carlsberg don't do Fine Gael European Parliament election results but if they did the party could not have done better, having won five out of thirteen seats. Big Phil Hogan is due a lot of credit for the work he did as director of elections. However, the danger is that the Opposition might now relax and take their collective eyes off the ball.
Drapier was one of the first to point out that there is a real alternative government among Fine Gael, Labour and the Greens. Immediately after the recess they should apply their minds to devising a strategy and a programme to put to the people in due course. This should be a no-nonsense, practical programme, built on promoting enterprise and social justice, which addresses real issues and provides real leadership in championing them. If the people see such an agenda and the determination to implement it, they will be disposed to change, especially given that Fianna Fáil will have been so long in office.
As the Oireachtas goes into recess, Drapier notes the number of colleagues who are musing about the future. A Cabinet reshuffle is promised for September so who will go out and who will go in? Will the configuration of Government Departments change? For example, could we have a new Department of Consumer Affairs and Competition? Opposition frontbenches will reshuffle as a result, and membership of Oireachtas committees will change to facilitate the new personnel.
We will be then almost at the halfway stage of the life of the current Dáil. It is, therefore, time for consolidation and planning, the Opposition will need to show that they have hunger for change and that they have the capacity to provide a decent alternative Cabinet with a purposeful agenda.
The name of Ireland's next EU Commissioner will become public shortly, presumably as a result of the reshuffle. The job is Brian Cowen's for the asking but the Taoiseach could go outside the Cabinet and pick a Junior Minister, perhaps Tom Kitt or Dick Roche, or Jim McDaid, who has previous Cabinet experience. What does the future hold for Pat Cox? Is the current Attorney General, Rory Brady, like his predecessor, David Byrne, a contender? Bertie could surprise everybody by going outside the Government parties, but Drapier's money is on Mary Harney, who has already indicated her intention to leave Enterprise, Trade and Employment.
Drapier is not an advocate of State ownership. In the case of Aer Lingus Drapier takes a somewhat different view. Would we privatise the Air Corps or the Naval Service or anything that directly affects the security of the State? As an island we depend on an air service more than any other European Union country. There are strong arguments for retaining a State-owned air service, on security grounds, in the broader meaning of the term. Drapier will keep an open mind but, based on these concerns, will take some persuading.
The summer schools will soon be in full session and provide welcome opportunity for reflection and respectful debate. Perhaps we will see some new ideas floated which might help stimulate political renewal.
Expect to see Bertie Ahern and his Fianna Fáil colleagues, especially those who want to retain their places in the Cabinet, swarming all over the Galway Races later this month as part of an attempt to recover some lost ground. Connacht is the home ground of Enda Kenny and Pat Rabbitte and Drapier expects that Fianna Fáil will not have it all their own way. There may well be more competition off the track than on it.
The President, Mrs McAleese, will shortly announce her intentions in relation to another term. Drapier does not expect a competition but this very much depends on Mrs McAleese's decision. If she is not a candidate, expect some new and interesting names to emerge.
As the Houses recess, Drapier salutes the work and efforts of Labour TD for Waterford Brian O'Shea, who, despite a painful and debilitating back problem, has, much of the time on crutches, continued to fulfil his parliamentary duties impeccably.
Other colleagues who impressed were the youthful Damien English, and the experienced and compassionate Dan Neville, who should now move up to the Fine Gael frontbench, as well as Pat Carey who is surely in line for ministerial office. Liz O'Donnell of the PDs has shown renewed interest and could take over from Mary Harney if she moves to the Commission. Eamon Ryan of the Green Party has shown good political judgment. Fine Gael's Paul McGrath has given a solid performance, as has Fianna Fáil's Mary Wallace, and Independent Paddy McHugh.
Drapier recognises Fianna Fáil's Tony Dempsey as a considerate colleague, a good all-rounder and a measured contributor.