The opinion poll highs and lows of sitting Taoisigh: October 1982 - September 2010
CHARLES HAUGHEY
Dec ’79-Jun ’81; Mar ’82-Dec ’82; Mar ’87-Feb ’92
HIGH
67% Feb 1989
Haughey’s extraordinary ability to survive and bounce back was dramatically illustrated by his ability to get the second highest rating of any taoiseach since Irish Times polls began. His popularity beyond his core supporters had begun to rise sharply in 1988, when he defied British prime minister Margaret Thatcher over the extradition of an alleged IRA member. The implementation of a series of austerity budgets by his finance minister Ray MacSharry was actually popular. Haughey’s peak of popularity actually came immediately after a budget that increased duties on cigarettes, drink and petrol. Yet the volatility continued - by the time he resigned in December 1991, his popularity was back to the low levels of the GUBU period.
LOW
31% Nov 1982
Always a divisive figure, Charles Haughey’s popularity hit its nadir in the wake of the GUBU scandals. His attorney general, Patrick Connolly, had resigned in August after Malcolm Macarthur (above), who is wanted for the murder of nurse Bridie Gargan, is found in his flat. Conor Cruise O’Brien coined the term GUBU from Haughey’s description of events: grotesque, unbelievable, bizarre, unprecedented.
GARRET FitzGERALD
Jun ’81-Mar ’82; Dec ’82-Mar ’87
HIGH
56% Feb 1983
Just two months after taking over as taoiseach from Haughey, and just a week after a tough budget, FitzGerald’s popularity was at its height. Haughey, who had recently seen off an internal challenge to his leadership, was a full 17 points behind FitzGerald in the satisfaction stakes. This lead was all the more impressive given that the same poll showed that 72 per cent of respondents believed their standards of living would fall as a result of the budget.
LOW
36% Feb 1987
Three successive polls in the run-up to the 1987 general election all had FitzGerald at a miserable 36 per cent. His attempts to liberalise Irish society had run aground in 1986, when his divorce referendum was soundly defeated. But it was the economic crisis of the late 1980s that destroyed his popularity. The slump coincided with record unemployment of 250,000, almost a fifth of the workforce and a spiralling national debt.
ALBERT REYNOLDS
Feb ’92-Dec ’94
HIGH
63% May 1992
Albert Reynolds enjoyed great popularity in his early months as Taoiseach in 1992, not least because he had ousted the by-then much-derided Haughey. His high level of satisfaction in May was remarkable, however, because it defied the controversies into which he had been plunged. His coalition partner Des O’Malley had attacked him at the Beef Tribunal. The infamous X abortion case had caused widespread outrage. The abortion debate had become entangled with a referendum of the EU’s Maastricht Treaty. Yet Reynolds and Fianna Fáil were riding high. Pollster Jack Jones noted that “an own goal remains a possibility”.
LOW
28% Nov 1992
And what an own goal it was. Reynolds went into the witness box at the Beef Tribunal and accused his coalition partner Des O’Malley of having given “reckless” and “dishonest” evidence under oath. The PDs pulled out of government, precipitating a general election. Reynolds’s popularity dropped from 51 per cent to 31 per cent to 28 per cent on the eve of the election. Fianna Fáil took a hammering in the election. Reynolds, to general astonishment, rescued himself by doing a new coalition deal with Dick Spring’s resurgent Labour.
JOHN BRUTON
Dec ’94-Jun ’97
HIGH
63% Mar 1997
Having been a broadly unpopular leader of the opposition, John Bruton was a surprisingly popular taoiseach, with satisfaction levels never falling below 53 per cent. With the economy growing rapidly, there was a new sense of optimism in the country. Bruton’s skilful management of a three-way coalition involving Fine Gael, Labour and Democratic Left enhanced his stature. The poll figures gave him some reason to believe that he could win an election in his own right for this rainbow coalition.
In this, they flattered to deceive. Within three months, Bertie Ahern was taoiseach.
LOW
53% Dec 1996
It is very unusual for a prime minister to have his lowest popularity ratings right at the beginning of his term. Bruton is unusual, however, in having a decent rating at the start and maintaining it throughout what was admittedly a short reign. The circumstances in which he became taoiseach - benefiting from Labour’s sensational decision to pull out of coalition with Fianna Fáil - were not ideal, especially for a man who had barely survived an internal heave. But, as Enda Kenny’s supporters like to point out, Bruton looked much better in government than in opposition.
BERTIE AHERN
Jun ’97-May ’08
HIGH
84% Apr 1998
It doesn’t take acute analysis to decipher the reasons why Bertie Ahern recorded the highest satisfaction rating on record. The poll came in the wake of his greatest triumph - the signing of the Belfast Agreement. His huge personal commitment to the deal was rewarded with heroic status:
75 per cent of Fine Gael voters, and 76 per cent of Labour voters declared their satisfaction with him. It didn’t hurt that the economic boom he had inherited was, to use his own phrase, getting boomier. He seemed untouchable - surely his place in the hearts of Irish people was permanently secure.
LOW
40% Jan 2008
Bertie Ahern’s last poll as taoiseach was taken in a period of mounting questions about the credibility of his evidence about his personal finances to the Mahon tribunal. His rating put him, for the first time, behind the chronically unpopular Fine Gael leader Enda Kenny. He was also far behind his heir apparent Brian Cowen, who had a 52 per cent rating.
Fianna Fáil put a brave face on it, with Cowen insisting that the poll showed that “people are not interested in vulgar personality politics”. But Noel Dempsey remarked that “the taoiseach will go in his own time”, an ominously weak endorsement.
BRIAN COWEN
May ’08-present
HIGH
52% May 2008
Brian Cowen’s first poll showing was not spectacular - it was almost the same as that for another taoiseach who had been elevated without an election - John Bruton. But it was accompanied by an eight-point jump in Fianna Fáil support, giving the party its second strongest performance in six years. Cowen was just a week in the job at the time, but he public seemed to have warmed to his gregarious celebrations of his triumph in his native Offaly. There were warning signs of an impending economic crash, but fears were mostly quelled by assurances of a “soft landing”. If there was an ominous sign in the poll for Cowen it was that an extraordinary 37 per cent had no opinion of him. A lot of people didn’t know what to expect.
LOW
15% Sept 2009
Cowen hit his lowest point - and lowest point ever reached by a taoiseach - in September 2009.
The full extent of the banking crisis was beginning to sink in a year after the bank guarantee. Nama was being established amid widespread public anger. A staggering 75 per cent of voters wanted a change of government. Cowen’s 15 per cent satisfaction was bad enough - even worse was the 77 per cent dissatisfaction rating. Things did improve fairly quickly for Cowen, with his satisfaction rating rising to 23 per cent later in the month on foot of a competent campaign on the Lisbon treaty. He hit 26 per cent in January 2010. His popularity has slid again since then - to 18 per cent in June and 19 per cent this week. That’s nearly 10 points below where Albert Reynolds was at a time of almost complete disarray.