Ministers will meet at Government Buildings today, following their summer break, to consider the outlook for the economy and to design a political strategy for a new Dáil session that opens at the end of September. They will have plenty to worry about as the economy slows, oil prices rise and the public becomes increasingly dis- illusioned over failures to resolve the shortcomings of our social and physical infrastructures.
The matter of most immediate concern to Ministers, however, will be the evolving political situation in Northern Ireland and preparations by the Provisional IRA to decommission its weapons, as was promised in a statement last month. That process is expected to commence shortly and a report on the matter will be presented to Cabinet. At the same time, the return to the country of the "Colombia Three" and the implications it holds for the Belfast Agreement, for domestic politics and for Ireland's international reputation will also be explored.
With a general election on the horizon, Fianna Fáil Ministers will be intensely aware of their poor showing in the opinion polls and of the growing political strength of Sinn Féin. In spite of that, Taoiseach Bertie Ahern should push for completion of the decommissioning process and for the normalisation of politics on both sides of the Border. He can depend upon Minister for Justice Michael McDowell to maintain a questioning and, when necessary, confrontational stance on issues concerning law and order and republican activities.
Rising oil prices, declining exports, job losses to cheaper countries and a fall in the number of new housing starts all point to worrying times ahead for Minister for Finance Brian Cowen as he prepares spending Estimates for 2006. It is clear that the Government's "big new idea" will involve increased funding for childcare. Hammered in two byelections on the issue, Ministers aspire to lift some of the financial burden from the shoulders of angry young parents. But spending elsewhere is likely to be tight, as was instanced recently at the Department of Health where Tánaiste Mary Harney ordered a delay in the provision of certain new hospital facilities.
In spite of protestations that an election will not be held until 2007, all parties will have selected their candidates by next December. And, if an economic downturn develops, Ministers may choose to go to the country when SSIA savings accounts begin to mature in 2006. Time is running out. eight years in power, the electorate has grown weary of the Government. Consumers are increasingly unhappy about so-called "Rip-Off Ireland", with its cartels, public waste and anti-competitive practices. But the performance in opposition of Fine Gael and Labour, the core parties of an alternative government, has been less than dynamic. They face a real challenge in the autumn Dáil session to convince the electorate they have the policies and the personnel capable of making a difference.