Cautious hope in the Middle East

Yesterday's Israeli-Palestinian summit in the Egyptian resort of Sharm El-Sheikh is a welcome return to political engagement …

Yesterday's Israeli-Palestinian summit in the Egyptian resort of Sharm El-Sheikh is a welcome return to political engagement in this deadly and intractable conflict.

The separate statements by Mr Ariel Sharon and Mr Mahmoud Abbas that they are ceasing violent hostilities in tandem with their agreement to continue this dialogue could help open up a new dynamic of negotiation between them, bolstered by renewed support from Arab neighbours and international pressure for a comprehensive settlement.

Realistically, however, it would be wise to be cautious, even sceptical, about this in the light of previous false dawns. The two leaders remain far apart and both sides have quite different expectations from any new process, even if there is a fresh momentum behind it and a palpable war fatigue among Israelis and Palestinians alike.

There are plausible reasons for optimism that it will be possible to return to serious negotiations on the "road map" set out at the Aqaba summit in June 2003, as the US says it wants to see happen. It laid down clear phases, timelines, target dates and benchmarks aimed at making progress by the two parties in political, security, economic, humanitarian and institutional fields. These were carefully calibrated over the previous year with the United States, the European Union, Russia and the United Nations, all of which were to act as facilitators and guarantors of progress made. The intention was to agree a comprehensive settlement within three years.

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Unfortunately the road map effort collapsed in mutual recriminations and renewed violence. Certainly there are several new factors now at play. Mr Abbas has been elected to succeed Yasser Arafat. Mr Sharon is in a new coalition with Labour. A re-elected President Bush has pledged to see a Palestinian state within four years and badly needs a settlement for the credibility of his wider foreign policy - not least in Iraq. His Secretary of State, Ms Condoleezza Rice, says the US will be "very active" in pursuit of it, has called on Israel to make the necessary hard decisions for peace and has appointed a general to supervise the mutual military cessation.

Mr Abbas badly needs a rapid transition to substantive talks on an overall settlement, rather than the prolonged period without any violence sought by Mr Sharon. Mr Abbas cannot guarantee this without real and visible concessions on reducing the burden of Israeli occupation in the West Bank and Gaza, including a halt to Israeli settlement activity, freer movement for Palestinian civilians and reduced checkpoints. Yesterday's Israeli announcements of a 500 prisoner release, pullbacks from five Palestinian cities and an end to assassinations of Palestinian militants are only a start in this direction. Mr Sharon rejects the road map's agenda of an end to settlements, a shared Jerusalem and the return of Palestinian refugees.

Despite these huge obstacles the potentially transforming prize of peace demands the most determined effort to bring it about by all the parties to the conflict.