Within the next few days, the Northern Secretary, Dr Mowlam, has to decide whether breaches of the IRA ceasefire require that political sanctions be placed on Sinn Fein. That the ceasefire is less than absolute will be confirmed by any security official, North or South. The IRA has murdered a succession of men believed to have been involved in the drugs trade. It has murdered at least two others whom it believed to have been informers. It has engaged in systematic assaults and mutilation in its so-called "punishment beatings". Perhaps most ominously, for the long-term success of the peace process, it has been engaged in the further importation of weapons.
But in a sense it is the very absence of large-scale violence, bombings and gun attacks which has lent these events such prominence. No act of violence can be condoned or excused. But given the capacities of the organisation and its underground, secret nature, it has to be acknowledged that the IRA ceasefire has been, by and large, effective. Without it, such progress as there has been towards a full settlement would not have come about.
Only the very naive have believed that the IRA considered its work over and done when the Belfast Agreement was signed. Dr Mowlam has to consider whether Sinn Fein's military associates have shot people - and they have. But she also has to assess if the republican axis wishes to remain on the political path or whether it sees its engagement in the peace process merely as a tactical flirtation with democratic politics. The true balance of influences within the republican movement is known only to those within it. But it seems that, at best, Mr Gerry Adams and his close associates have persuaded their followers that there is more to be gained at this time through politics than through violence. IRA/Sinn Fein know how to play the alternate cards of violence and politics as circumstances dictate. Skilled strategists that they are, Sinn Fein's spokesmen will argue that the application of any sanctions now against Mr Adams and his supporters will strengthen the militarists. If Dr Mowlam punishes Sinn Fein, it will send a message to the rank-and-file that the political pathway is being blocked. But Dr Mowlam will also calculate that the republicans are greatly attached to the growing influence and power which they enjoy through the democratic process. They will not wish to see themselves excluded from it.
Neither the governments, nor the republicans themselves, want a terminal crisis in the process at this time. They want the existing framework to remain in place until Senator George Mitchell arrives next month to pick up the pieces after the July debacle of Mr Blair's "absolute deadline" for the setting up of an executive. Perhaps significantly, some unionists, at least, also want to have Sinn Fein there. Mr Ken Maginnis has all but asked the Secretary of State to let Sinn Fein off the hook of the IRA's violence for a time in order to have them in the room in September when Senator Mitchell comes back.
Dr Mowlan will be under pressure to halt republican prison releases and she may slow them down. But she will seek to avoid an all-out confrontation at this time. The likelihood must be the imposition of a relatively mild penalty on Sinn Fein. Sinn Fein itself has not formally confirmed that it will participate in Senator Mitchell's review but it is a safe bet that Mr Adams will do so, while having it put about that there are many at his back who think it a waste of time. There is life in the process yet.