The people of Japan could be excused for feeling somewhat apprehensive about the month of September. In two weeks' time, they will be presented with a prime minister-designate to succeed Junichiro Koizumi, who skilfully orchestrated a five-year stretch of considerable economic growth. On Wednesday, they are expecting to be presented with a new member of the imperial family, who could have a significant bearing on Japan's future.
Mr Koizumi is almost certain to be succeeded by Mr Shinzo Abe, the chief cabinet secretary. He announced his candidacy last Friday and, although comparatively young and untested, he is the clear favourite. Mr Abe can be expected to continue the economic reforms instituted by Mr Koizumi, although at a slower pace, and to do nothing that might interrupt economic progress, but it is on his foreign policies that most attention, at home and abroad, will be focused.
Mr Koizumi hitched his country to the US in unmistakeable fashion, a not surprising strategy perhaps for an island nation living beside a sometimes-cranky, nuclear-powered China, not to mention the loose cannon of North Korea. But Mr Koizumi, while cosying up to Mr Bush, made little effort to improve relations with his near neighbours in his years in office and caused considerable ill-feeling with his provocative visits to the Yasukuni shrine, which honours war criminals among others.
Princess Kiko, wife of Prince Akishino, is due to give birth by Caesarean section to her third child in Tokyo on Wednesday. It is an event that has had Japan in thrall since the pregnancy was announced because the princess may produce a male heir to secure the future of the dynasty, which traces itself back to the first emperor, Jimmu, in 660 BC. Jimmu is a mythological figure and the lineage back beyond 1867 is far from proven, but such details do not get in the way of the imperial family's standing, which borders on reverential, or its popularity.
Japan had female emperors before, but a law passed in 1947 stipulated that only males could henceforth ascend the throne. The two princes have three daughters between them but no sons. The succession rules could be changed but, despite the devotion to the family, there is doubt that legislation would pass. The family is a unifying force of considerable value and its members demonstrate liberal tendencies which encourage right-wing politicians to veer to the centre. Any question mark over its future could allow Mr Abe, who defends the war criminals and has talked of pre-emptive strikes against North Korea, further liberty to drive Japan to even greater indifference towards its neighbours.