President Yeltsin's promise during his election campaign to find a political solution to the Chechnya crisis is now, whether he likes it or not, at the top of his agenda. It has also got inextricably mixed up with the power struggle in Moscow which is linked to the questions about his own ability to rule. One incident already threatening the ceasefire negotiated during the weekend the alleged torture and massacre of 15 Chechen hostages, including women and children, by troops of the interior ministry has demonstrated how far the rivalries in the Russian government can go in frustrating any hope of peace. Chechen separatist leaders have sworn to have revenge, and have demanded that those responsible should be handed over to them.
Even in the best of circumstances, the ceasefire negotiated by Gen Alexander Lebed, who was given special powers by Mr Yeltsin to bring the conflict to an end, was far from promising a lasting peace because of the deep distrust on both sides after 20 months of savage conflict. But Gen Lebed's mission from the outset has been beset by the hostility of the interior minister, Mr Anatoly Kulikov, a hard line opponent of the separatists' demands. Mr Kulikov's control of his ministry's troops gives him a position in the current ambivalent phase of events that could be entirely destructive of the effort to negotiate a political settlement.
What happens now will be an important test of Mr Yeltsin's control of the government and his grasp of the political realities surrounding the crisis in Chechnya. He has apparently rejected Gen Lebed's demand for Mr Kulikov to be removed from office. That could lead to the failure of Gen Lebed's mission and his ignominious disgrace consequences which, in a different context, might be interpreted as the result of a Machiavellian plan to undermine a powerful potential rival, but in the case of Chechnya, entails untold dangers for Mr Yeltsin himself.
Internally, a prolongation of the war would be at the cost of further loss of support from Russian public opinion, exacerbated by Mr Yeltsin's failure to honour one of his main election promises. If Gen Lebed, who has gone some way towards securing the confidence of the separatist leaders, is not allowed to succeed, few would give much for the chances of another attempt to deliver a negotiated agreement in the short term. But, as the recent successes of the separatist troops have shown, the prospects for a military victory by the Russians are not good either. In this dilemma Chechnya furnishes the ingredients for a major political confrontation in Moscow in which Mr Yeltsin, unable or unwilling to exert his presidential power, could prove to be irrelevant.
The stakes are high not only for Russia and Mr Yeltsin. The German Chancellor, Dr Kohl, underlined at the weekend the international significance of the conflict. Peace, he said, had not only been pledged during the election by Mr Yeltsin, but it was also a necessity. So far there has been little evidence that the distinction between promises and action has been recognised in Russian political strategy. Dr Kohl's explicit support for the Lebed mission, and his hint of further pressure, are signs of the growing anxiety in the West.