World View: Germany's doyenne of public opinion research, Prof Elisabeth Noelle-Neumann, took readers of the Frankfurter Allgemeine newspaper on a trip down memory lane recently, writes Derek Scally.
"Does anyone remember the years in Bonn when the people at receptions separated themselves into two camps, the Atlanticists and the Gaullists?" she asked.
The reason for her nostalgia was a new study by her Allensbach polling institute showing a remarkable shift in German national allegiances.
For decades, Americans have been the untouchables of German life, typified in the 1970s Stern magazine cover: "Our Friends, the Americans." Even a decade ago, when asked to name their country's greatest friend, one in two Germans answered "the US".
By March 2003, as the Iraq war commenced, only one in 10 felt the US was Germany's best partner. But by then Germany had already found a new best friend. Newspaper editors marked this friendship on the 40th anniversary of the Elysée Vertrag with entire issues devoted to France.
One Berlin newspaper printed a large front-page picture of Amélie star Audrey Tautou, under the headline "Our Beautiful Neighbour." The Allensbach study shows that France now occupies the place in German hearts for decades reserved for the Americans, with some 41 per cent of Germans of the opinion that France is their country's most important partner.
And the study, based on personal and not telephone interviews, makes it clear that German feelings towards Americans remain the same no matter if the question is abstract or personal.
Asked on a personal level if they "liked" the Americans, only 22 per cent of those questioned said Yes, down from nearly 50 per cent a decade ago.
The figures differ between east and west, with easterners less friendly towards the US. But the most fundamental change is that the negative view of the US by western Germans now outweighs the positive opinions, by 36 to 33 per cent, for the first time since Allensbach began the survey in 1957.
"This shows how fundamentally the attitudes of Germans to the Americans have changed," writes Prof Noelle-Neumann, best known in academic circles for her "spiral of silence" theory. It suggests that people are more willing to openly disclose their opinion the closer they believe it represents prevailing public opinion.
In this study, she admits that the questions invite certain stereotypical answers, but suggests that these stereotypes themselves expose the basic orientation of the population's opinion.
Political personalities are central to the shift in public opinion, as the study makes clear. Nearly two-thirds of Germans have a positive attitude to French president Jacques Chirac, while President Bush impresses just 16 per cent of Germans, with 70 per cent admitting a bad opinion of him. In the popularity stakes, Mr Bush occupies a place in the poll just ahead of Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak.
"In such a comparison, the Americans always used to put the French in the shade," writes Prof Noelle-Neumann. "But from a German view, Bush embodies symbolically the kind of politics that they have rejected with a huge majority."
It's not just this popularity contest alone that is responsible for the change in views. On the abstract question of bilateral ties, Germans said eight years ago that French and American relations were equally important. Now one in four prioritises French relations, with just 15 per cent putting US ties first.
The final part of the study cements what Prof Noelle-Neumann has called "the triumph of the Gaullists over the Atlanticists": a clear majority of those surveyed favoured closer co-operation with France on a long list of issues, from crime and terrorism prevention to economic initiatives.
What makes this study all the more interesting is the suggestion of exactly this from Mr Dominique de Villepin in his inaugural speech this week as prime minister of France.
While the rest of the world heard Mr de Villepin talk of a 100-day programme to turn around France, German ears heard just one sentence: "Let's open new perspectives, such as fiscal harmonisation or a union with Germany in some areas we would have chosen together."
That mention of a union, likely to reawaken concerns about another "core Europe" attempt, put Mr de Villepin on the front page of the German newspapers.
Mr de Villepin had already touched on the idea two years ago as foreign minister. "What if the Europe of 25 fails, what's left then for France?" he asked in November 2003. His answer: "An initiative of Franco-German rapprochement", envisaging closer co-operation in areas lacking an EU-wide consensus such as defence - and foreign - policy as well as research and social affairs.
Many EU analysts in Berlin see Mr de Villepin's remarks as a natural development from the French No vote to the EU constitution, and a chance to build something between the two countries now that could be applied to the EU later as a new policy element.
They also have little doubt that Mr de Villepin was expressing the wishes of President Chirac, who met the chancellor, Gerhard Schröder, for the second time in a week yesterday.
The two leaders spoke of the union in only vague terms like "united, strong" yesterday in Paris, leaving observers in Berlin sceptical of the initiative's chances. Both governments in France and Germany are facing elections sooner rather than later - in Berlin as early as September.
Opposition Christian Democrats, increasingly confident of taking office in the autumn, have been sketching out the rough lines of' a foreign policy in which France plays a diminished role.
"We want equal diplomatic relationships with all EU members, regardless of their size and political importance," said Christian Wulff, a leading CDU state premier this week.
CDU foreign policy expert Friedbert Pflüger was more explicit, praising the achievements of the Franco-German motor in the EU, but adding that, in the future, this relationship "must be inclusive".
With the prospect of the Chirac-Schröder mutual appreciation society disappearing from view, Prof Noelle-Neumann's proclaimed "triumph of the Gaullists" may be shortlived.