That the Kyoto Protocol on climate change will finally become international law next Wednesday is something of a miracle. The Bush administration's early decision not to ratify it might have sunk the treaty, but Russia eventually came to the rescue, depositing its all-important instrument of ratification with the United Nations last November. Thus February 16th will mark "the beginning of a new era in international efforts to reduce the risk of climate change", in the words of Ms Joke Waller-Hunter, executive secretary of the UN Climate Change Convention.
Implementing Kyoto will not of itself do much, if anything, to reverse global warming. But it is a small step in the right direction. The target is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from industrialised countries by 5 per cent overall, based on 1990 levels, in the period 2008-2012. Scientists advising the UN have said that much deeper cuts - of up to 60 per cent - will be needed this century to avert the worst consequences of climate change.
That's why the European Commission moved this week to set out its stall for future negotiations on climate change policies after 2012, when the first commitment period under the Kyoto Protocol ends. These proposals include renewed efforts to draw major emitters such as the US into the process as well as rapidly-developing countries such as China and India. The commission will also want the maritime, transport and aviation sectors, which got off scot-free under the current arrangement, to be included in a tighter post-Kyoto regime.
The Government is now reviewing its National Climate Change Strategy, originally adopted in 2000. Given that so few of its policy measures have been implemented - notably the imposition of carbon taxes and the conversion of Moneypoint power station from coal to natural gas - ministers will have to redouble their efforts to ensure that Ireland meets its Kyoto target of capping the growth in our greenhouse gas emissions at 13 per cent above 1990 levels in the period 2008-2012. We cannot simply buy our way out of the problem. Cuts must be made here at home, and soon.
In the meantime, environmental groups and others who have helped to keep the Kyoto Protocol alive since it was adopted in 1997 are entitled to celebrate. Without their tireless and determined efforts, and the commitment of progressive governments in Europe - though, sadly, not our own - it would otherwise have perished in the murky waters of international diplomacy, aided and abetted by those with strong vested interests in maintaining the fossil fuel economy.