Coalition divorce of no use to either party

There is a New Zealand born academic, now based at the University of British Columbia in Canada, who is doing a doctorate on …

There is a New Zealand born academic, now based at the University of British Columbia in Canada, who is doing a doctorate on how large political parties accustomed to being in single-party government have adapted to being in coalition.

Her doctorate involves a comparative study of how the largest political parties in New Zealand, Australia, Canada and Ireland have or have not been able to make coalitions work. She was in Ireland over the summer undertaking field research on Fianna Fáil's coalition experience. I don't know what initial conclusions she came to before she left, but had she stayed another few weeks her conclusions would likely have been very different.

The fact that the Irish experience is not unique will be of little comfort to Michael McDowell and Bertie Ahern on this, the third consecutive weekend in which they have had to deal with the fallout from the recent series of controversies.

Among the risks that arise for the Taoiseach from the events of the last fortnight is that lasting damage may be done to his hard-won reputation as a successful coalition manger.

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A somewhat predictable chorus of McDowell critics have sought to attribute the rise in coalition tensions to the fact that the new Progressive Democrats leader has a more robust and volatile political style than that of his predecessor. The truth, of course, is more complex.

The controversy about payments to Bertie Ahern is not of Michael McDowell's creation. It would have tested any coalition relationship irrespective of the tenure and experience of the party leaders.

McDowell has in fact shown some skill in trying to chart a safe course for his party through the political minefield they have found themselves in. His comments reported on the front page of this paper last Saturday were particularly significant in calming tensions within the Coalition at that point. This week he has had to balance the competing forces within his own parliamentary party, some of the members of which have been overly sensitive to taunts and criticisms from some media outlets and Opposition politicians about their initial support for Bertie Ahern's position.

The Taoiseach's inability to be sufficiently comprehensive in his response to the different allegations has also contributed to the recent difficulties between the Government parties. There is a lot of support and sympathy for Bertie Ahern but the delay in delivering full details about the circumstances of the various payments has caused some unease, not only within the Progressive Democrats but also within his own party. There is at times a sense that he is giving explanations on a need-to-know basis only, or trying to play some kind of information poker with his tormentors.

It is unjust that the confidential details the Taoiseach gave to the tribunal have come into the public domain. It is also unfair that personal financial arrangements about his separation and the purchase of his home have become the focus of incessant and at times voyeuristic media coverage. However if, as it appears, the Taoiseach is facing a drip-feed of information designed to undermine him, then the only way to insulate himself against it is to put all the information he can into the public domain as soon as possible and to get his explanation in first.

One of Bertie Ahern's most significant political achievements has been that under his leadership Fianna Fáil has shown it could commit to enduring coalition partnerships. After the acrimonious demise of the Haughey-O'Malley government in February 1992, of the Reynolds-O'Malley government in November 1992 and of the Reynolds-Spring government in December 1994, Bertie Ahern was determined when he became Taoiseach in 1997 that his government with Mary Harney would run a full term. After the 2002 election, he could have made up the numbers for a single-party government with the Independents, but instead he decided to go back into government with the Progressive Democrats even though this meant giving them another full ministry.

The Fianna Fáil-Progressive Democrats Government since 1997 has been one of the most cohesive arrangements in the history of coalitions; second only perhaps to the Liam Cosgrove and Brendan Corish-led Fine Gael and Labour government of the mid-1970s.

Indeed relations around the cabinet table since 1997 have been more congenial than they had at times been during some single-party Fianna Fáil governments.

If it was Charles Haughey who brought Fianna Fáil across the coalition Rubicon it was Bertie Ahern who made Fianna Fáil almost indispensable in future government formation by showing that the party could make coalitions work. There is a risk now of this work being undermined - partly because of his own actions.

There have been many bullish assertions from Fianna Fáil TDs this week that the Progressive Democrats could take a run and jump. Fianna Fáil is justifiably confident that there are between four and six Independents who could be relied upon to support the Government until an election date next summer.

However, while this talk of government without the Progressive Democrats might fire up the Fianna Fáil grassroots in the short term, it is foolhardy in the context of the next election. It is not just Fianna Fáil's options for Government in the next six months that matter now - the party's options for government for the following five years and afterwards are also in the balance.

An acrimonious end to this Government would not assist either party in the next election. The Progressive Democrats crossing over to the Opposition side of the Chamber at this stage of the electoral cycle would change the dynamic not least because whenever the election comes it would be more difficult to advance the Fianna Fáil-Progressive Democrats line-up as a cohesive option against the rainbow configuration.