Concerns over oil supplies

A flurry of concern about the security and cost of oil supplies this week has arisen from reports about security threats against…

A flurry of concern about the security and cost of oil supplies this week has arisen from reports about security threats against western representatives in Saudi Arabia, further peaks in world crude oil prices, and the political consequences of Iran's blunt rejection of European proposals to dissuade it from resuming its nuclear research programme.

These developments are a reminder that economic prosperity in Ireland and throughout the world depends on secure supplies of energy. More attention must now be paid to the political, scientific and environmental conditions which will allow them to be continuously available.

It cannot be assumed any more that continuity of supply is assured without radical changes in policy and behaviour. Oil supplies are not near exhaustion, but experts underline that easy access based on continuing growth of newly discovered fields is giving way to a period in which it is becoming more difficult and costly to find them, with demand steadily rising. These trends will continue irrespective of economic cycles.

The political conditions required to ensure oil supplies are intimately bound up with peace, justice and security in the Middle East, because that is where so much of the potential supply is located. Nowhere is this more so than in Saudi Arabia, which has some 11 per cent of world supplies.

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The country's new leader, King Abdullah bin Abdel Aziz, who succeeded King Fahd this week, has given an early indication of a willingness to pursue cautious reforms by releasing four critics of the regime from prison. Intelligence reports that a new round of terrorist attacks is being planned on western targets there underline the regime's vulnerability to the region's changing pressures.

Iraq is the cockpit of such change during a crucial week when its constitutional future is being determined amid continuing resistance to foreign troops and the transitional regime.

One of the more plausible accounts of why the United States led the invasion two years ago was a fear that otherwise Saddam Hussein would benefit from Saudi instability or collapse, blackmailing western access to the region's oil supplies. If so, the record shows the cure has so far been worse than the disease.

Iran's regional influence has grown as a result, notably through the success of Iraq's Shias in taking advantage of these changes. The Iranian decision to reject EU proposals on nuclear research may not be final, a consideration which influenced the International Atomic Energy Agency's deferral of a decision to refer the matter to the UN Security Council yesterday. There is still time to bargain.

Such disparate but related issues will affect international oil supplies for the foreseeable future. Finding political solutions to them is important for the world's economic wellbeing. But much more attention must now be given to alternative sources of energy and behavioural change if long-term energy requirements are to be met.