The catastrophic consequences of a possible foot-and-mouth outbreak in this State may not be as severe as feared. It is almost impossible to put a definite figure on the impact on the economy. Everything depends on whether an outbreak occurs and how widespread it is.
However, most analysts say they are hopeful that any outbreak could be limited to a fairly small number of farms. They point to the reaction of the public and sporting bodies in cancelling matches, the Fine Gael Ardfheis and other activities, which goes far beyond any precautions taken in Britain.
The cost to the economy can be counted in a number of ways:
There will be compensation to farmers for herds which need to be slaughtered;
There may be ongoing compensation for loss of living; and
There is the more serious loss of export markets.
The major loss will be that of our current status as a foot-and-mouth-free State. The loss of meat and dairy markets for six to nine months will have a major impact. However, the overall impact on the economy is not what it would have been had the disease caught hold in 1967. The unmeasurable cost will be in our image as a "green" market, which An Bord Bia has capitalised on so well.
According to Mr Con Lucey, chief economist at the Irish Farmers' Association, the value of meat exports which could be lost over six months would be around £735 million. If EU export refunds are included, it would come to some £900 million. These figures assume that any outbreak is brought under control in weeks and exports of meat could resume within six months.
The impact on the dairy sector is unlikely to be significant. The EU ban currently affecting the UK only impacts on unpasteurised milk. Cheese, yogurts and other products which are heat-treated or double-pasteurised are not affected. In the same way, many packaged foods are unaffected, as the treatment gets rid of the disease.
The key, according to food companies such as Glanbia and the IFA, is to ensure any outbreak is contained - if the disease does arrive in this State.
Compensation costs may not be significant. Assuming the State compensates farmers at the full market cost, the price for slaughtering the average herd of 50 cattle would be some £30,000. The cost for sheep or pig losses would be lower. Compensation for loss of income for six months before the farmer could restock could come to £7,000, according to IFA figures. Thus if, say, 20 farms were affected - a figure many hope privately would far exceed any realistic outbreak - the full cost would be £740,000.
Of course, if the disease takes off, the costs would be far greater and could prove very damaging.
The key, according to Irish Cooperative Society (ICOS) president Mr Dessie Boylan, is to impose a blanket ban on farm-to-farm sales and movement of all livestock other than for slaughter under tight controls.
The impact on individual companies and farmers will be more significant. Companies involved in processing are less exposed than those selling raw produce. The key issue here is price. If the State loses disease-free status, much product will be unsellable and what can be sold will probably be sold at a lower price.
The problem is that herds which remain free of foot-and-mouth will have no place to go. Ironically, the BSE crisis may actually help in this situation. The slaughter programme already in place is likely to take up some of the cattle which could otherwise not be sold.
THE ban on slaughtering will also be only for a limited period, as Mr John O'Reilly, of Davy Stockbrokers, points out. The animals concerned will simply be slaughtered later. This is likely to be the case for Glanbia with pigs, according to Mr O'Reilly.
This assumes that any crisis is very quickly contained. Primary processors, including Kepak (the meat processing company whose Co Roscommon plant is under suspicion), Anglo Irish Beef Processors, Dawn Meats, Glanbia and Dairygold, will all feel the effect to some extent.
The impact on value-added companies will be less severe. Heat treatments and double pasteurising, which companies such as Kerry Group carry out on many products, mean their exports would not be hit by any EU ban.
However, Mr O'Reilly warns that value-added processors will be hit by stock write-offs, a fall in consumer demand and margin squeeze as a result of higher materials costs.
At the end of the day, the disease throws up far larger questions about the future of farming. The move towards open borders under World Trade Organisation directives is now likely to come under far closer scrutiny than it would have before this outbreak.