IN THE past 170 years, in sharp contrast to the 26 counties that now make up the Republic, the population of the northern six counties remained relatively stable – it declined only by a quarter from 1.6 million in 1841, before the Famine that afflicted them less severely, to a low of 1.2 million in 1891, to turn upwards again gradually and consistently to a record high of 1.8 million in 2011. Famine and waves of emigration meant that the population of the 26 counties, on the other hand, crashed by nearly half (46 per cent) from 6.5 million in the 1841-91 period, and further on down to its low of 2.8 million in 1961. It would then rise gradually to 4.6 million (2011 census).
On the island as a whole the population has increased to just under 6.4 million – by more than 1.25 million in the past two decades and by well over two million in the last half century.
Data just published from the 2011 Northern Ireland Census show that the population in the North has increased by 7 per cent in the past decade, 30 per cent of the rise attributable to a net inward flow of migrants (36,300), many from central Europe, and akin to that in the South.
The figures do not include the much-awaited and politically sensitive tally of religious affiliations – the last two censuses, in 1991 and 2001, have seen the Catholic population rise from 38 to 40 per cent of the total population, a share expected to rise again in 2011. The combined numbers who described themselves as belonging to one of the Protestant denominations a decade ago totalled 46 per cent.
But the census does provide important information for public policy planners, not least with respect to the North’s ageing population and the implications for pension and care facility provisions. In the past decade the population aged 65 and over has increased by 40,400 (18 per cent), and most emphatically among the most elderly, an increase of over a third in those over 85 (31,400). In absolute numbers, the biggest population increases have been among the older working ages – there are a fifth more people aged 40 to 64 than a decade ago. The median age, which divides the population in two, has risen in the last century from 25 to 37.
And cash-saving zeal for closing schools in the face of falling enrolments – under-15s down by 9 per cent – will have to be tempered by the reality that another bulge is on the way. The number of pre-school children aged up to three years has increased by 10 per cent.