This week's ' Irish Times'poll shows Fianna Fáil and its leader in poor standing with the public, writes Noel Whelan
IF THE Government was winded by the publication of the Red C poll two weeks ago, this week's Irish Times/TNS mrbi poll has left it floored. The fact that its support levels are so low in this comprehensive nationwide poll of more than 1,000 voters questioned in their homes a full two weeks after the medical card controversy is very, very worrying for Fianna Fáil in particular.
There is no fudging the new reality. This TNS mrbi poll shows the party and its leader in poor standing with the public. Even allowing for the fact that the last Irish Timespoll was published during Cowen's honeymoon, the 15 per cent drop in Fianna Fáil's support and the 21 per cent drop in his own personal approval rating is startling. It also suggests that there is now a leadership drag on the party's support level.
The five months since the last TNS mrbi poll have been a particularly intense and extraordinary political period.
Our parliamentary political system does not include a mechanism for structured transition such as that of which Barack Obama will avail for two months before taking up the US presidency. While there was a long and extended lead-in from Ahern's announcement to Cowen actually becoming Taoiseach, it is not the same thing.
Nothing prepares someone for the scale of the job of premier in the modern cabinet system. Even a lengthy career as a senior minister only offers a partial insight to the complexity of the task of leading modern government, particularly in the contemporary media environment.
After more than 11 years as taoiseach Bertie Ahern made the job look easy; whoever came after him was going find it more difficult, at least initially. Not since February 1992, however, when Albert Reynolds faced the political tsunami precipitated by the X case in his first week, has any new taoiseach faced such a difficult start as that endured by Brian Cowen.
As Cowen and some of his newly assigned Ministers were settling into their fresh positions and beginning to get a picture of the emerging economic crisis, they were knocked sideways by the Lisbon result. Of course, most of them were part of the Government which authored these misfortunes but it made for a torrid start nonetheless.
Some of the Cowen Government's initial footsteps in June and July were unsteady, but they were more sure-footed in early autumn. The September decision to bring the Budget forward six weeks was - and in my view remains - a good one.
Its impact was enhanced because, unlike many political initiatives, it did not leak and took media and Opposition by surprise. It veered political coverage of the Government off the negative trajectory it travelled for most of the summer. The deft handling of the banking crisis and announcement of the bank guarantee meant the Government looked in pretty good shape at the end of September - although there was no published TNS mrbi poll to confirm this.
It is the controversy that erupted around the Budget which has, perhaps fatally, undermined the Government's standing. The causes of this controversy are complex and are not confined to the Budget provisions themselves. They extend to the wider public denial about the scale of the financial and economic crisis we are in.
The current low poll figures arise in part from the Government's own political mistakes and public concern about whether it is up to addressing the economic crisis. However, the answers to specific questions in this poll about the Budget suggest that many voters want the Government to make tough decisions but do not relate those decisions to the cuts in public services which will flow.
A lot of media effort is now being spent drawing indications from this week's poll as to how the Government will fare in the next general election. Much, of course, will depend on when and in what context that election comes. Frankly, the future electoral fortunes of the Government parties are not the most important issue. What matters most now is whether the Government can restore its political standing so as to enable it to win public acceptance for the difficult decisions it has yet to make.
The Government, and the Taoiseach in particular, will have to embark on something akin to a relaunch in the coming months. Cowen himself needs to transform both his style of communication and his political modus operandi. He must also do whatever it takes to improve the Government's wider political and communications management. There may even be a need for a Cabinet reshuffle.
Cowen should also be more frank with the electorate with a clearer apology for the contribution his own decisions as minister for finance may have made to the current economic difficulties as well as for recent political mistakes.
He then needs to lay out a broader vision of how the Government will chart a way through the current crisis, detailing who will hurt most and why.
After a decade and a half of good economics and easy politics, we are now set for volatile economic and political times. The only solution open to the Government is to be even tougher in managing the public finances. That may give rise to an improvement in its own fortunes or it may not, but, even if it doesn't, it is necessary in the national interest.