ANALYSIS:THIS WEEKEND'S convulsions in Greece's largest ruling party and the disintegration of the Papandreou government echo the political and economic dramas of Irish politics earlier this year.
Tonight, RTÉ in the first of a two-part documentary series will attempt a second draft of the history of the dramatic period in Irish politics which culminated in the collapse of the Cowen-led government. Even at this proximity it is possible to view the impact of these events in the historical context of the Fianna Fáil party and to come to some initial views on why the party’s collapse was so rapid.
By the end of 2010, Fianna Fáil had been in government for 60 years of its 84-year existence. Since 1932 the party had never polled less than 39 per cent in a Dáil election. In February 2011, however, Fianna Fáil’s share of the vote more than halved and it lost almost two-thirds of its seats. It was an extraordinary political disaster.
The key determinant in the transformation of party fortunes was, as it always is, economics and economic mismanagement. When the international environment deteriorated and the economic road conditions became dangerous the State was speeding. As the party at the wheel when the crash occurred, Fianna Fáil took the lion’s share of the blame.
Economic factors were not the only drivers at play, however. Just when it was needed most, Fianna Fáil failed to provide the Republic with effective political leadership. Brian Cowen had long been a favourite among party grassroots. This was particularly so at ard fheiseanna where his combative orations sent the clapometer off the scale.
He appeared to have been a competent, if not particularly colourful, administrator during his tenure at the Departments of Foreign Affairs and Finance. During the 2007 election when Fianna Fáil’s campaign became stuck in the mire of Bertie Ahern’s personal finances, Cowen had pulled it out.
When Ahern finally fell in May 2008, nobody contested Cowen’s claim to the succession. Colleagues hoped that, as a man of unquestioned political integrity and demonstrated ability who had a deep heritage in the party, Cowen would represent a break from the controversies of the Haughey and Ahern years.
Having coasted into the top job the former minister for finance suddenly became unlucky. Within weeks of assuming office, his government suffered a serious defeat in the Lisbon Treaty referendum. As the economic challenges worsened Cowen appeared overwhelmed and reluctant to take the necessary steps to address them. As the curtain was drawn back on the real state of our banking and the public finances, inevitable questions began to be asked about Cowen’s tenure of the Department of Finance: how could so much that was wrong have gone on without being spotted and prevented?
This undermined his standing and also undermined his self-confidence. It did not help that throughout his time as taoiseach he exuded a sense of resentment at the media and a generally disengaged demeanour. There was much to be unhappy about, but an electorate traumatised by bad economic news needed a cheerier and more energetic messenger in chief.
The final weeks of the Cowen government were chaotic, bordering on surreal. In January 2011 Fianna Fáil deputies realised belatedly how much trouble they were in and rumblings against the leader intensified. He fought off the discontent to win a confidence motion on Tuesday, January 18th, only two days later to destroy his government’s and party’s last vestige of credibility through a botched attempt to replace retiring ministers with new faces at a point when it was obvious to everyone that the administration had lost all public support and an election was only weeks away. The following weekend Cowen resigned.
Reeling, traumatised and incoherent, Fianna Fáil then went through the process of a leadership election and Micheál Martin emerged as the man chosen to head the salvage mission. He could only save 20 of the party’s Dáil seats.
In the February election central weaknesses in the Fianna Fáil organisation – previously masked by the political dividend of the boom and personal appeal of Bertie Ahern – were brutally exposed.
In the early 1980s the more ambitious politicians in the party realised the organisation was so old and its methods so outdated that a new form of political campaigning was required, particularly in the cities and commuter belt. Many Fianna Fáil TDs or aspirant TDs set about building separate personal organisations in their constituencies and, literally, disorganised the party structure in their area.
Whereas party headquarters had previously frowned on such personalised campaigning, it then not only became standard practice but was actively encouraged by the hierarchy. It could hardly do otherwise, since most of the party’s senior politicians were engaged in it themselves. Bertie Ahern’s personalised and well-resourced operation in Dublin Central epitomised this new style. In many areas the party simply became a franchise, its logo affixed to the literature of individual political operations.
Increased donations were sought to sustain this costly campaign style. This personalised fundraising was channelled in some instances through a friendly local cumann. In others the proceeds was simply lodged into individual accounts. The intermingling of party and personal cash became, in some instances, a cover for suspect political and financial transactions.
Devoid of its original mission, stripped of its reputation for economic competence or probity, lacking critical mass in the Oireachtas and depleted in personnel at local government and cumann level, Fianna Fáil may now be in terminal decline.
The party’s recent strong performance in the Dublin West byelection and the vicissitudes of the presidential election suggest there is still some space in our changing party system for an entity that appeals to those who formerly voted Fianna Fáil. Whether that is Fianna Fáil depends on the extent to which the party can draw a line through its recent past and derive inspiration from its founders.
Noel Whelan’s latest book
Fianna Fáil – A Biography of the Party
will be published on Friday next by Gill and Macmillan.
Crisis: Inside the Cowen government, is broadcast tonight on RTÉ 1 television at 9.30pm