Tánaiste and Minister for Finance Brian Cowen is in training for the top job having been singled out by Taoiseach Bertie Ahern as his preferred successor. In delivering the Indecon Public Policy Lecture on Monday night, Mr Cowen not only put some flesh on the bones of his 2008 budget but he used the opportunity to sketch out his vision for Ireland in the years to 2016, the centenary of the 1916 Rising.
On the budgetary front, Mr Cowen signalled three specific changes in fiscal policy next year. First, the pace of growth in day-to-day public spending is to be curbed from 12 per cent this year to 8 per cent in 2008 as the initial stage in reducing public spending growth to mirror the economy's expansion path in the years ahead. Second, even though it may involve recourse to borrowing, public capital spending is to be raised by 12.5 per cent next year. Third, the era of substantial tax cuts is over. Only tax reductions that are consistent with the prudent management of the economy will be considered, Mr Cowen said, adding that tax changes would be concentrated where needs were greatest in equity terms. Special interest groups need not apply.
However, it was when Mr Cowen moved beyond the nuts and bolts of the next budget to his vision of the future that his speech gained in substance. In the past, the Tánaiste - a party man through and through - has been noticeably reticent in sharing his world-view. But vision is now a necessary condition for ascending to political leadership. Every leader must have one. In outlining his preferences for the shape of Ireland's future evolution, Mr Cowen was both copperfastening his position as front-runner for his party's leadership and reaching out to a wider public in search of support.
The three strands of Mr Cowen's strategy for the next decade are rapid productivity growth, enhanced equity in Irish society and a safe environment. Faster productivity growth is the only reliable route to providing sustainable increases in living standards for all in society, Mr Cowen argued. He added that fostering faster increases in output per person is best achieved by market forces.
However, his faith in the market mechanism is not blind, as he conceded "but while markets work, they don't work perfectly for everyone". He signalled that more initiatives will be taken in the decade ahead to ensure full equality of opportunity, particularly in the spheres of pre-school education and adult literacy.
In terms of seeking to carve out a singular and identifiable position as a politician of ideas and not merely a finance minister in his counting house, Mr Cowen's speech was a fair effort. Of course, there were gaps and omissions, particularly in the areas of policy instrumentation. But perhaps that is allowable in a broad brush presentation. Above all, what the speech seems to confirm is that Mr Cowen is up for the job. On present form, only the economy can beat him.